A Fight Democrats Must Win
Funding for the Department of Homeland Security expired at midnight. A partial government shutdown is now in effect because Democrats refused to vote for a funding bill that included no tangible guardrails on ICE and Border Patrol.
Democrats deserve real credit for taking on this fight so soon after the last shutdown. When the political environment favors us, we tend to slip into a kind of Prevent Defense—take no risks and play not to lose.
This time, Senate Democrats took a big swing because it was morally right—and they did it on the very issue that has historically made them the most nervous.
A year ago, shutting down the Department of Homeland Security over ICE funding would have looked like political suicide. Immigration was Trump’s strongest issue and the one he always leaned on during elections.
But a lot has changed in a year—especially since the killings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti. Immigration is no longer Trump’s strength. It is a vulnerability.
According to Nate Silver’s averages, Trump’s approval rating on immigration is now 12 points underwater.
ICE’s approval rating has dropped roughly 30 points over the past year and now sits about 20 points underwater. Americans increasingly believe ICE is out of control and needs reform. A new NBC poll found:
Nearly three-quarters of respondents say they want U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to be reformed or abolished. Large majorities say immigration officers have gone too far. Sixty-three percent say the federal government has gone too far in disregarding local and state governments, compared with 37 percent who say states and localities have gone too far in disregarding federal authority.
In this fight, Democrats are not defending a fringe position. They are fighting for common-sense reforms that are broadly popular. Strong majorities support:
banning the use of masks;
improving training and enforcement standards;
requiring judicial warrants for arrests and searches; and
stronger oversight of ICE and Border Patrol.
One lesson from the last shutdown is that once Trump and congressional Republicans dig in, they are unlikely to cave—even under intense political pressure. Obamacare tax credits were supported by roughly 80 percent of Americans, including a majority of MAGA voters, and Republicans still refused to budge.
That means Democrats will have to see this fight through. They cannot blink. If that means DHS remains partially shut down through the election, so be it. ICE and CBP already have the funding they need. Democrats are willing to fund the rest of DHS. They are not asking for anything radical; keeping the entire department shuttered is Donald Trump’s choice.
The only way Democrats lose this fight is if they cave when the pressure mounts.
That cannot happen. It would be a historically foolish own goal on the eve of what could be a wave election for Democrats.
