There is much to discuss about Tuesday’s developments, but first, a few nudges:
First, do you have a plan for March 28, 2026—No Kings Day 3? If not, check out this site for a protest near you: Over 3,000 No Kings Events Planned for March 28; More Events Added Daily.
Second, if you plan on attending, have you invited a friend? Someone in your life may be waiting to be asked, afraid to speak up. Help them find their voice!
Third, if you are unable to attend in person, consider joining a virtual event. See, for example, the virtual event hosted by Stand Up For Science, here: No Kings 3 Accessible Rally, hosted by Stand up for Science.
More evidence that the resistance is gaining momentum.
These are difficult times. We need all the good news we can get, so let’s start there. In Florida, the Democratic candidate in a special election for a state legislative seat, Emily Gregory, won in a district that includes Mar-a-Lago. See Politico, A Mar-a-Lago flip: Dems win Trump’s hometown Florida House district. Trump won the district in 2024 by 19 points. Emily Gregory defeated the GOP candidate by 2 points, for a total swing of 21 points in two years!
The victory is meaningful standing alone, but it signals the revitalization of the Florida Democratic Party. Politico quoted Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried as follows:
“This victory reiterates an undeniable trend in Florida: With year-round organizing and infrastructure investment, Democrats can run and win anywhere —including Donald Trump’s backyard. Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky-high prices on everything from groceries to gas and health care.”
A 21-point swing is not possible without flipping at least some of Trump’s 2024 base. Alternatively, lots of GOP voters in 2024 must have stayed home in the Florida special election. Either way, the results indicate a meaningful softening of support in Trump’s base—and a mounting enthusiasm among Democrats.
The victory in Trump’s backyard is consistent with a poll released Tuesday showing that a core Trump constituency is abandoning the president. See The New Republic, Brutal Poll Says Men Are Abandoning Trump. Per TNR,
Support for Trump among men (vs. 2024) has dropped 20 points.
Support for Trump among men under 45 (vs. 2024) has dropped 25 points.
The major driver of the swing against Trump is the economy’s performance, which will only worsen as the effects of the global energy shock drag on the US economy. Per the TNR, Trump has a net negative on the economy among men of 30 points!
The findings of the CNN polling discussed in The New Republic are consistent with another recent poll focusing on support for Trump among men. See Third Way, How Young Men View Trump 2.0 After One Year.
Polls are not elections; elections are elections. But recent polling is consistent with Emily Gregory’s victory in the district that includes Mar-a-Lago. That should give us reason for hope—but not complacency—heading into the midterms.
One final story that is not obviously related to the above, but which will likely accelerate Trump’s slide in the polls, is the presence of ICE at airports. Air travel in the US is generally miserable, but the cut-off of funding for TSA is leading to havoc at airports. In some terminals, security lines are four hours long.
ICE Agents are now standing next to those long lines, holding assault rifles while staring at their cell phones.
As noted by Jay Kuo in his Substack piece, by stationing ICE at the airports, Trump now personally owns the chaos at the airports. See The Status Kuo, Trump Now Owns the Airport Chaos.
Per Jay Kuo,
It’s a political blunder of the highest order. But this is Trump, who never believes the normal rules of political gravity will pull him down.
Good luck with that.
I agree with Jay Kuo’s assessment. Sending ICE to airports is a political blunder from which there is no retreat, except in defeat. For more on Trump’s dwindling options for resolving the TSA standoff, read on!
The on-again, off-again deal to fund TSA.
Yesterday, I wrote about a complicated deal to fund TSA that involved a three-step process to split off TSA funding (with Democratic support), followed by a reconciliation bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol (without Democratic support), which would necessitate an appropriations bill that could be blocked by a Democratic filibuster.
In short, the proposal was a win for Democrats, as it funded TSA but not ICE/CBP. Republicans were trying to sell the deal to Trump with the promise that they would cram provisions of the SAVE Act into the reconciliation bill.
Long story short, I said that the plan to pass the SAVE Act while funding ICE / CBP would not work. On Tuesday, Senator Mike Lee (Utah), said the same thing, posting:
It’s hard to imagine how the SAVE America Act could be passed through reconciliation. And by ‘hard’ I mean ‘essentially impossible.’
As the illusory nature of the promise to pass the SAVE Act dawned on legislators, Republicans in the House walked back their support for the three-step plan. See The Hill, House Republicans pan proposal to split up DHS bill despite Donald Trump openness.
Per The Hill,
House Republicans are pushing back stiffly against the idea of splitting up legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), despite the White House and Senate Republicans saying President Trump is open to doing just that.
See also, Daily Beast, MAGA Melts Down as Trump Considers TACO Plan to End Shutdown and Democracy Docket, Why the GOP’s newest plan to pass SAVE America Act is DOA.
So, where are we on ending the TSA shutdown? In general, I would say that both sides want a resolution but can’t find one. Senate Republicans have made a proposal that Democrats find unacceptable. Strange as it sounds, that is progress; it shows that Republicans are finally taking responsibility as the governing party to fund DHS. The good news is that Democrats are holding their ground on not funding ICE and Border Patrol absent significant reforms.
Developments in Trump’s war on Iran.
Chaos and confusion reign in Trump’s illegal war on Iran, but there may be a unifying theme that explains most of the chaotic events: Trump is desperate for a quick end to the war, but Iran is emboldened, distrustful, and (understandably) aggrieved. As a result, Trump’s desire for an end to the war by the end of this week is running headlong into Iran’s newfound control over the Strait of Hormuz and its demands for security guarantees and reparations. If there is a negotiated settlement, it will likely be hard-won and excruciatingly slow in coming.
Before turning to Trump’s word-salad-meets-dog’s-breakfast news conference on Tuesday, let’s look at the few hard facts we know. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to countries that Iran views as US allies in the war against Iran. See Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker — Real-Time Shipping & Oil Crisis Monitor.
According to the Tracker,
De facto selective closure with permission-based transit regime. Iran allows passage for non-hostile countries (China, India, Turkey, Pakistan) while blocking US, Israeli, and Western-allied vessels. Strait physically passable but commercially unviable due to insurance withdrawal and Iranian threats.
Per the Tracker, only 3 ships have transited the Strait in the last 24 hours, compared to a daily average of 60 ships.
The Iranian Parliament is drafting legislation to assert permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. Per a letter sent by Iran to the International Maritime Organization, Iran said that it would re-open the Strait to vessels not operated by the US, Israel, or “other participants in the aggression.” The latter phrase is ambiguous, but Iran has granted safe passage to ships owned by China, Turkey, Pakistan, India, and Iran’s own vessels. See Financial Times, Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s letter to the International Maritime Organization appears to be the “present” that Trump childishly teased during a press conference. If Iran’s letter to the IMO is a “present,” it is a gift to non-US allies. Only in Trump’s telling is a letter continuing the ban on US and Western vessels a “present” to the US. See Bezinga, Iran’s Secret ‘Gift’ To Trump: Hormuz Is Open For Everyone But US Ships.
Trump made a series of contradictory statements that exuded desperation. He alternatively claimed that the US had “won” the war but hoped the US would share control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran—a concession that suggested Iran had won the war, or had at least not “lost” the war. See Rolling Stone, Trump Declares Iran War Won, Approves Deployment of More Troops.
Trump also variously suggested that he alone, or “Maybe me and the ayatollah, whoever the ayatollah is,” would decide which ships would transit the Strait. This second statement was a concession that Trump has given up on “regime change” as one of the goals of the war. See Reason, Trump says U.S. and Iran could jointly control Strait of Hormuz.
Trump alternatively suggested that peace negotiations were proceeding apace while the US is sending 2,000 paratroopers to the Middle East, a sign that the US is staging troops for a land assault on Iran. See NYTimes (paywalled), Pentagon Orders 2,000 Airborne Troops to Middle East.
Trump’s description of peace negotiations is exaggerated. The US has sent a 15-point peace proposal to Iran—an unusual opener for the country that claims to have “won” the war. See CNBC, U.S. sent Iran 15-point plan to end war, report says.
Iran has made aggressive public demands that Trump has described as “non-starters.” See Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo, Iran Has Trump Over a (Oil) Barrel. Sad.
Per Josh Marshall,
As Reuters reports in this new (paywalled) story, Iran is actually dramatically upping its demands since the start of the war. Those include guarantees of no future attacks, reparations for war damage and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, you can demand anything you want. That doesn’t mean you’ll get those things. But when one side is begging for talks and backing off threats, and the other is making maximal demands you know who has the whip hand in the negotiations and indeed in the larger conflict itself. And don’t be surprised if Iran actually gets some of those concessions.
In short, Trump is desperate for a settlement, while Hegseth, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Trump’s advisers are urging him to invade Iran. That is a bad idea, very bad. See the superb analysis by Lucian K. Truscott IV, Bloodbath. If you have any doubts about how bad an idea it is to invade Iran, I urge you to read Truscott’s analysis. He brings knowledge, detail, and analysis that do not appear elsewhere in the media.
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
Below are additional details on the virtual, accessible No Kings Day rally sponsored by Stand Up for Science:
Maybe you’re one of the millions of Americans for whom showing up in person isn’t an option for a myriad of reasons.
YOU are the reason SUFS is partnering with the No Kings organizers to hold the No Kings 3 Accessible Rally — a virtual event for everyone, everywhere to show up and join the fight however you can. I invite you to sign-up here to join us online this Saturday 1:30-3pm EDT!
Our unifying battle cry for this Saturday’s No Kings 3 rally is “Defend our Rights, Protect Our Health, Fight for Our Democracy!” If there’s one thing we proved over the past 13-months is that fighting back against Trump, RFK and MAHA works because it includes EVERYONE.
Please sign-up here to attend our virtual rally this Saturday ... then TAKE A MINUTE TO SHARE THIS LINK as far as you can to ensure anyone who thought they might miss the No Kings 3 protest this Saturday knows now they can join the SUFS No Kings 3 Accessible Rally — the official No Kings 3 protest for everyone, everywhere!
Concluding Thoughts
Friends, the momentum is building. Trump is on the defensive over his illegal war and the DHS / TSA shutdown. No Kings 3.0 could not have arrived at a consequential moment in our nation’s history. Many years hence, your descendants will ask where you were on No Kings 3.0. Make them proud. Allow them to say with pride, “My ancestors stood up and spoke out for America when others were afraid or indifferent. Their resistance preserved democracy and safely carried us to this point. Now, it our turn to do it again . . . .”
See you in the streets on Saturday!
