It has been nine days since Trump began a war with Iran for reasons that are clear to no one, including Trump and his man-child Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. To them, war is about blowing things up. They lack the education, experience, and intelligence to understand the inevitable global consequences of war with a major Middle Eastern country of 90 million people that controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas transit. Nor do they comprehend how their reckless action in the Middle East will encourage Russia in Ukraine and beyond.
What follows is sobering news about the cascading consequences of Trump’s illegal war. We can stop it by demanding that our representatives in Congress do their job—to exercise oversight of the executive in matters of war. The point of reviewing the quickly unfolding consequences of the war is not to frighten people, but to embolden them to reclaim our primacy as the government’s source of legitimacy and authority.
With that framework of hope, let’s take a look at the latest.
Prices are on the rise at gasoline pumps in the US, to which Trump replied “[I]f they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit.” It remains to be seen how high gas prices will rise, but even “a little bit” to Trump can be the difference between being able to commute to work or not for Americans earning minimum wage or living on fixed incomes.
By show of hands, how many people believe Trump has ever pumped gasoline into a car?
While Trump is dismissive of increases in gas prices, the rest of the world is preparing for a generational “oil shock.” Oil pushed past $100 per barrel over the weekend, causing the Wall Street Journal to lead its Sunday edition with a feature article entitled, The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us. (Gift article accessible to all.)
Per the Journal,
The doomsday some oil analysts believed could never happen was coming to pass. Unable to ship crude to world markets, much bigger producers in Iraq began to run out of places to put it. The country cut output by more than two-thirds. Tanks in Kuwait were next to fill up. U.S. oil prices vaulted above $100 a barrel Sunday for the first time since the fallout of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.”
Per CNN, oil hit $108 by Sunday evening, with leading experts suggesting that the price could reach $150 per barrel by the end of March if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. CNN, Oil prices soar past $100 a barrel as war escalates in Iran.
The oil shock has already hit the gas pumps in the US:
“In the U.S., a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.45 on Sunday, about 47 cents more than a week earlier, according to AAA motor club. Diesel was selling for about $4.60 a gallon, a weekly increase of about 83 cents.” See Boston.com, Crude oil prices surpass $100 a barrel.
The US stock market lost all of its gains for the year last week and turned negative for the year. As of Sunday evening, the Asian markets (trading on Monday) and the DOW and S&P futures markets were down 2%+, suggesting a very bad opening to the US stock markets on Monday. See CNBC, Dow futures tumble over 1,000 points as U.S. oil nears $120 a barrel to begin the week’s trading.
Trump has admitted that he believed the war would last “four to five weeks.” What Trump and his military leaders failed to anticipate was the response of the Iranians, who just selected the Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of Iran’s late supreme leader, as Iran’s new leader, even as Tehran widened its attacks across the Mideast to strike oil and water facilities crucial to its desert sheikdoms.” See AP News, Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader.
The new Supreme Leader Khamenei is reportedly close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and is seen as a continuation of his father’s radical, hardline ideology. See Who is Mojtaba Khamenei? Iran’s hardline next supreme leader, explained.
Per Axios,
Between the lines: Mojtaba is expected to be more hardline than his father, and his ascent means the Iranian regime may get more repressive.
He has close ties to some of the most “ideologically extremist clerics” who have been at the forefront of the regime’s most violent crackdowns, per the Council.
Of course, Iran has suffered significant damage to its war-making ability over the last nine days. But eradicating its nuclear capability may require a ground invasion. See NYTimes, op-ed, W.J. Hennigan and Massimo Calabresi, There Is One Crucial Reason We’re Talking About Boots on the Ground (Gift article, accessible to all.)
As Hennigan and Calabresi explain, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium likely sits in underground vaults not susceptible to destruction by conventional bombing. One approach to seize the material is to launch a ground assault by elite troops trained to seize nuclear materials—an assault never before attempted.
Of course, it is a “best-case scenario” if the nuclear stockpile is still in one location and under the control of whatever functioning government exists in Iran. The cannisters containing the material could have been scattered across Iran in the early days of the US war—a possibility that would put the materials within reach of rogue states and stateless terrorists.
So, it is not enough to destroy Iran’s nuclear processing capability. The US must destroy or seize the existing stockpiles of enriched uranium—a task most likely accomplished through ground assault or negotiations, which is where the parties were nine days ago, before Trump pulled the trigger on a reckless war.
All the above is bad news that is difficult to hear and process. But talking about problems is only half the equation. We have agency. We grant the government legitimacy and power. We must withdraw both—through peaceful protest and regime change at the ballot box. It is not too late for Congress to begin to exercise oversight of Trump and his illegal war.
As of Sunday evening, DHS is still in partial shutdown mode, and the Pentagon will need a supplemental appropriation to continue its air war against Iran. Democrats and a handful of Republicans can stop (or cut short) the illegal war in short order by denying the Pentagon new funds.
Do not give up, do not lose hope. The coming global oil shock and the unpopularity of the war will weaken Trump and the GOP’s resolve to protect him at all costs. Although Trump is currently unrestrained, we are seizing the momentum. Stay strong, and show up!
Trump wears a golfing cap to the dignified transfer of the bodies of US soldiers.
The dignified transfer of the bodies of US soldiers killed overseas is one of the most solemn and mournful duties performed by a president of the United States. Any perceived indignity during the ceremony is viewed as an insult to the honored dead. President Joe Biden was severely criticized because some people believed he glanced at his wristwatch while waiting for the bodies to be returned to US soil.
On Saturday, Trump fidgeted through the dignified transfer ceremony, compulsively fiddling with his jacket buttons and lapel. Worse, he wore a white golfing cap and never took it off. By tradition, civilians remove their hats during ceremonies, e.g., during the singing of the Star-Spangled Banner.
There is no suggestion that the golf cap is part of Trump’s regalia as Commander in Chief. To the contrary, the golf cap is available on Trump’s campaign site for $55.
Trump’s disrespect provoked widespread condemnation. See International Business Times, Trump Sparks Major Outrage on Social Media After Wearing a Baseball Cap During Transfer of US Soldiers Killed in the Iran War.
This is not a “gotcha” story. It is about Trump’s lack of understanding and empathy. As I wrote above, Trump sees war as “blowing things up.” Dealing with the bodies of soldiers he sent to war is—for Trump—an annoyance that delayed his weekend golf by a day, to Sunday, when he wore the same golf hat that he wore during the dignified transfer. See Daily Beast, Trump Blasted for Golfing as More Die in His War.
Fox News was so embarrassed by Trump’s behavior that the network used video from a previous dignified transfer during which Trump did not wear a hat. When Fox was criticized for attempting to cover up Trump’s disrespect, Fox corrected the video and apologized for its “mistake.” See The Guardian, Fox News uses old clip of Trump after he wore hat while saluting slain US soldiers.
Trump’s inability to understand and appreciate the sacrifice that he is demanding from men and women who volunteered to defend their country is appalling. And it is another reason that we must do our best to ensure that Congress exercises oversight of this illegal war as quickly as possible.
Trump threatens to veto every bill until SAVE Act passes
Demonstrating his increasing desperation, Trump has threatened to veto any bills brought to his desk before he is able to sign the SAVE Act—a voter suppression bill that seeks to impose VoterID and proof of citizenship requirements. Notably, Trump is also threatening to impose those requirements by way of executive order—a move that would be immediately invalidated by the courts. See The Hill, Donald Trump threatens to veto all bills until SAVE Act passes Senate
Trump’s threat to veto all bills before the SAVE Act makes its way to his desk is an acknowledgment that he has no authority to impose VoterID and proof of citizenship requirements by executive order.
Concluding Thoughts
I received a remarkable “group email” from a reader who encouraged everyone in her address book to attend the next No Kings rally on March 28, 2026.
The reader wrote, in part,
Dear family, friends, and anyone who is in my email address book,
I am doing something audacious. I am writing to everyone in my address book. I know some of you well - you are in my heart. Some of you are people I have met and may have lost contact with. Some of you are names that got into my address book by chance email, and I don’t really know you that well. I am writing to all of you anyway.
That’s not my audacity. My audacity is that I am, as a political activist, writing to ask you to take action:
On March 28th, there is a nationwide No Kings rally.
I am asking each of you to attend the rally in your area.
Clear your calendar. Make a plan. Attend your rally with a commitment to be peaceful. But commit to being there.
It is indeed an audacious act for the reader to reach out to everyone in her address book to encourage attendance at a No Kings Rally. While I understand that many readers would not feel comfortable making a similar request to hundreds of people, each of us can commit to asking one or two people to join us on March 28.
If everyone who attended the last No Kings protest recruits one new participant, March 28 will be the largest one-day political protest in American history by a large margin! If we can make that happen, the cowards in Congress will reconsider their absolute loyalty to a man who cares not a wit for them—and who is recklessly plunging the world into an “oil shock recession.”
The time to act is now, while we still have time to prevent far worse damage. We can do that—together. Ask a friend, acquaintance, or complete stranger to join you on March 28!
Talk to you tomorrow!
