In states holding midterm primaries on Tuesday, the throughline was Democratic enthusiasm. In blue and red states alike, Democratic turnout in open and closed primaries was strong, reaching near-record levels in some states. Although Republican turnout was strong, as well, it was eclipsed by Democratic enthusiasm.
The good news at the ballot box was heightened by “candidate quality.” In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper secured the Democratic nomination for Senate to succeed retiring GOP Senator Thom Tillis. Cooper has never lost an election and will face off against “a GOP oil lobbyist” at a time when lobbyists, oil, and Republicans are increasingly unpopular.
As I write, it is too early to tell which of two future stars of the Democratic Party—Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico—will win a tight race for the Democratic Senate nomination. Together, they have generated record-levels of Democratic turnout in Texas, a state with chronic low turnout. If there is a path forward, it is through candidates who can motivate reluctant voters to show up at the polls.
On the Republican side, several races in Texas have turned into “cage-match” mixed-martial-arts contests that will leave a mark on whoever wins. GOP incumbent Senator John Cornyn is in a run-off with the controversial and toxic Ken Paxton. Even Trump has had the good sense to stay away from race. When it became clear that Cornyn was forced into a runoff with Paxton, Cornyn released a statement saying, “Judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton. Republican voters will learn who Ken Paxton really is.”
MAGA firebrand Chip Roy will be in a run-off with another MAGA firebrand to replace Ken Paxton as Texas Attorney General. That race will turn on “loyalty” to Trump, pushing both contenders to the most extreme MAGA positions—not a recipe for success in blue-wave midterms where Trump is historically unpopular.
In a similar dynamic, one of MAGA’s nastiest members, Dan Crenshaw, is being challenged from the right by an even nastier challenger, who may win because of support from Trump and the Tea Party caucus. [Update: Dan Crenshaw lost to the challenger.]
The confusion in Dallas County, Texas, is inexcusable and was the result of a voter suppression change that became effective on election day. The change regarding where Dallas County voters were required to vote resulted from the refusal of Dallas County Republicans to sign an agreement allowing precinct-wide voting.
The details will matter in the litigation that will undoubtedly follow, but for now, the point is that Democrats have been forewarned that, in the 2026 midterms, same-day voting must take place in the precinct where the voter is registered to avoid challenge.
With that advance notice, we must ensure Democrats know where to vote. It will require hard work, but that burden will fall on Democrats and Republicans alike. We must work harder than Republicans to educate voters who will support Democratic candidates. We can do that.
The administration has a dumpster-fire day of contradictions, flip-flops, and incompetence
The administration experienced one of the worst days in modern presidential history. Incompetence oozed through the sizable gaps in the scotch tape and baling wire that hold the administration together. At its core, the chaos emanated from Trump, who lacks the attention-span, discipline, and intelligence to lead the administration. His stubby fingers were all over Tuesday’s chaos.
Why does this matter? Am I relating these stories just to serve a dollop of schadenfreude on top of Republican humble pie? No, the inconsistencies and incompetence are at the beating heart of Trump’s lawless policies.
If we hope to defeat his acolytes in the midterms, we must arm ourselves with the evidence of Trump’s colossal ineptitude, forcing his minions to defend every mistake, corrupt action, and crime committed by Trump.
Administration flip-flops on dropping appeal against law firms that refused to bend the knee to Trump.
Yesterday, I wrote that the Trump administration had requested a voluntary dismissal of its appeal of losses in lawsuits brought by law firms that refused to capitulate to Trump. That decision effectively amounted to a concession of illegality by the Trump administration—the correct result and a prudent exercise of judgment by the DOJ. But someone apparently forgot to tell Trump, who went ballistic and ordered the DOJ to seek to withdraw its request for voluntary dismissal.
Marc Elias sent an email that explained the reversal by the DOJ, and the blame that should be shared by the nine capitulating law firms. Elias wrote:
Having spent last night, no doubt, reviewing the slew of negative news clips indicating that Trump had given up his fight and democracy had prevailed, the Department of Justice decided to reverse course this morning. In its filing, the DOJ simply cited its “prerogative” to continue its appeal and informed the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals that it would continue its legal crusade against these four law firms. [¶]
In my piece earlier today, I called out the cowardice of the nine law firms that were in a position to speak out against Trump’s executive orders, but chose to stay silent. They bear the bulk of the responsibility and shame for the situation we find ourselves in. Had they stood tall and supported the four courageous law firms that fought back, Trump would not feel as empowered to continue his crusade.
Trump will ultimately lose this fight. But it should be over—and would be over if the nine capitulating law firms, and the rest of the legal profession, had come to the aid of the firms that chose to stand up to Trump.
Trump contradicts Rubio’s claim that the US attacked Iran because Israel was going to launch an attack first.
Yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US launched a “preemptive war” against Iran because Israel had informed the US that it planned to attack Iran, which the US feared would result in strikes on US military bases in the Middle East. Today, Trump contradicted Rubio’s claim. See ABC News, Trump contradicts Rubio. (“No. I might have forced [Israel’s] hand. . . [I]t was my opinion that [Iran was] going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.”)
To be clear, Trump lies constantly, so we should not credit anything he says. The point is that it is a rarity for a president to contradict his Secretary of State. But in Trump’s out-of-control administration, there is no coordination between Trump and his cabinet members.
Was the real reason for the attack on Iran a plot to commence “Armageddon”?
You can’t make this up. Apparently, at a pre-strike briefing, an officer told non-commissioned officers that Trump was chosen by God to start a holy war against Iran that would start Armageddon (a final battle before the Second Coming of Christ). See Military.com, Commanders Accused of Framing Iran War as Biblical Mandate, Jesus’ ‘Return’.
A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that President Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to independent journalist Jonathan Larsen as published on Substack.
That complaint was made by a non-commissioned officer and provided to the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF), which from Saturday morning through Monday evening received and logged more than 110 complaints about commanders in every branch of the military.
A word of caution: This story is based on a single source, which is generally reliable. But Snopes has rated the story “Unrated” because it relies on a single confidential source.
But the whole apocalyptic religious trope is consistent with Pete Hegseth’s radical Christian views. Indeed, Hegseth has a medieval crusader, anti-Muslim tattoo on his chest, “Deus Vult,” and is a member of a radical Christian nationalist movement that believes “God is also a god of war.” See Religion Dispatches, Not a Single Senator Probed the Most Dangerous Part of Pete Hegseth's Background: His Ties to White Christian Nationalism.
Per Religion Dispatches,
In December 2024, Jane Mayer reported in The New Yorker that a coworker at Concerned Veterans for America, one of two small nonprofits Hegseth has run, lodged a complaint against Hegseth after he and an associate began chanting “Kill All Muslims! Kill All Muslims!” in “a drunk and a violent manner” at a bar while on official travel for a work event.
So, the notion that Hegseth and other officers believe the attack on Iran is part of a twisted plan to prepare for the Second Coming doesn’t seem far-fetched.
Lack of coordination between FBI and Pentagon on illegal war against Iran.
In a well-run administration, planning for a war against a state known for sponsoring terrorism would have included working with the FBI to prevent terror attacks on the US. But forty-eight hours before Trump launched his illegal war on Iran, FBI Director Kash Patel fired about eleven members of an elite group charged with monitoring terror threats from Iran. See CNN, Kash Patel gutted FBI counterintelligence team tasked with tracking Iranian threats days before US strikes, sources say.
Kash Patel is affirmatively making Americans less safe. But it was unconscionable that the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, and Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, failed to consider the prospect of Iranian terror attacks on the US. They should have alerted Kash Patel to the need to increase surveillance of domestic threats coming from Iran. All of them are responsible for any attacks that slip through surveillance networks because of the untimely firing of the FBI specialists.
Americans are stuck in the Middle East because State Department failed to plan for their evacuation.
As with the failure to coordinate with the FBI, the State Department failed to make plans to evacuate Americans from the Middle East. See NBC News, Americans told to leave Middle East due to Iran war face closed airports, reduced embassy staffing.
The lack of planning was exacerbated by Iran’s response to the war. Rather than hunkering down under US attacks, Iran has adopted a strategy of spreading the hostilities throughout the Middle East. See NYTimes, Iran’s Strategy: Expand the War, Increase the Cost, Outlast Trump (Gift article, accessible to all.)
Per the Times,
Faced with the overwhelming firepower of the United States and Israel, diplomats and analysts say, Iran is working to enlarge the battlefield from its own territory to the broader region. The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic — all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation. Iran will also be trying to exhaust the number of expensive missile interceptors held by its enemies.
“The war has become a test of wills and stamina,” said Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “Iran is facing qualitatively superior militaries, so the strategy is to test their will by expanding the battlefield, complicating the war and increasing the danger to the world economy.”
The US State Department and Department of Defense apparently failed to anticipate a regional war as Iran’s defensive strategy—a failure of contingency planning, wargaming, and imagination.
There are more examples, but you get the idea. The administration is hopelessly in over its head. And the prime culprit is Trump’s undisciplined, narcissistic approach to all things.
Concluding Thoughts
Tuesday was a confidence-building night. As Democrats supported talented, personable candidates, Republicans were choosing election deniers and extremist, scandal-ridden candidates whose only selling point is their loyalty to Trump. For a president with an approval rating of 38% (19 points underwater) who has a positive approval rating in only 9 states (AL, OK, TN, MT, UT, WV, ID, WY, and ND), loyalty to Trump as a qualification for office seems like a losing proposition.
We can’t rely on Republicans to defeat themselves. But neither should we ascribe to them strength or acumen that they do not possess. They are not only fighting the last war (2024), they are fighting the two prior wars (2016, 2020). Democrats must look to the future and convince Americans to join them on that path. Given the state of America under Trump’s reckless, corrupt, incompetent administration, that is a vision that should be far more attractive to voters than Trump’s, “I alone can solve it” approach to politics.
Talk to you tomorrow!
