There is no doubt that J.D. Vance is one of the smuggest, smarmiest, politicians in modern American history. And that is saying a great deal given that politics attracts the smug and smarmy like moths to a flame. It is saying even more when you acknowledge that we live in a true golden age of smugsmarm, lit by that flame to the unctious, insincere, condescending and insufferable, Donald J. Trump.
Consider how many prime examples of smugsmarm we have to choose from. Matt Gaetz. Scott Bessent. Karoline Leavitt. Mike Johnson. Greg Abbott. Ron DeSantis. Pete Hegseth. Matt Gaetz. The Huckabee Family. Vivek Ramaswamy. Most Fox News hosts. Many Fox News guests. Pam Bondi. Kristi Noem. Melania. Jared. Ivanka. Don, Jr. Eric.
But among all these there is something about JD that is especially odious. It could be that he condescends to everyone. It could be that he has made a career of transparent insincerity. It could be that he is a protege of evil oligarch Peter Thiel. It could be his beard. It could be the feeling he communicates every time he opens his mouth. It could be the most punchable nose in the long history of punchable noses.
All of which are good reasons to celebrate the fact that in the short but incredibly undistinguished political career of this shapeshifting tool of GOP puppet masters, this past week is certainly the worst he has ever had. That is, of course, setting the bar pretty low since he did virtually nothing as a senator except switch positions on critical issues (like what he thought about Donald Trump) and he has done even less as Vice President except to ensure that people think twice about letting anything happen to Donald Trump.
Prior to this past week, JD’s greatest hits as VP were seeking to embrace Charlie Kirk’s widow a little too hard, embracing white supremacist Christian nationalism (also too hard…way too hard), turning off all of Europe with a super irritating lecture at the Munich Security Conference, and doing everything he could to position himself to succeed Donald Trump in 2028 (if not sooner).
Which is to say, he has not done much.
But this week, Donald Trump gave JD the two most important assignments of his time in office. First, he was dispatched to Hungary to support the man at the head of the MAGA-Putin ticket for re-election as the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban. Then, he was sent off to lead the U.S. negotiating team seeking an end to the Iran War.
For Trump and the GOP, these were both vitally important assignments.
In the case of Orban, there is no world leader other than Putin to which the U.S. president and the U.S. Republican party has attached itself to more closely than Orban, who has already served 16 years as the head of Hungary’s government. Orban was invited to CPAC conferences, to Mar-a-Lago, hailed by Trump as a political soulmate and offered up as an example of the anti-democratic ethno-nationalist ideal emulate by MAGAworld. On a regular basis, he not only supported Trump but he advanced the Putin-Trump agenda with efforts to weaken and obstruct the EU and NATO and, in particular, to undermine European-US efforts to support Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression.
What is more, under Orban, Budapest became a hub of promoting a global right wing ethno-nationalist movement that extended far beyond Washington and Moscow and has included Netanyahu in Israel, Modi in India, Erdogan in Turkey, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Milei in Argentina, LePen in France, Vucic in Serbia and right wing parties across Europe and beyond. Furthermore, as such it also became conduit for Russian money into those parties.
That is why it was so important to Trump that Orban win. That is why Trump sent the second highest ranking elected official in the U.S. That is why Vance stumped for Orban (while, in a truly hypocritical and therefore completely in-character display, condemning European efforts to endorse or support Orban’s opponent, Peter Magyar).
Things were not looking good during Vance’s visit as counter-demonstrations to were organized. They were looking worse when after his visit polls showed that Orban’s support actually dropped as a result of the public display of support from Vance—in one case by as many as 3 points.
But they looked worst of all late Sunday when, in the wake of an historic turnout among Hungarian voters and despite the many measures Orban had introduced to give himself an unfair electoral advantage, the Trump-Vance candidate was absolutely crushed in the Hungarian parliamentary elections.
This was bad news for Vance in multiple respects. First, he was a flop on the campaign trail. Next, a key source of support for the GOP is gone. In addition, a roadmap for how to beat authoritarians with turnout and active calls for accountability was offered up that could be relevant in the U.S. Third, with Vance’s approval ratings already among the lowest ever recorded for a vice president at this stage of an administration (with some showing a net negative rating of minus 25 percent and almost two-thirds of all voters viewing him unfavorable), Vance’s already murky future in American politics now looks even bleaker.
Indeed, with global politics sometimes moving in waves, the possibility that the Orban loss could trigger other big setbacks for the anti-democratic racist coalitions worldwide seemed to grow. Netanyahu will face an election later this year and with the Israeli populace already tiring of him and also, as it turns out, with his Iran war, he too appears in jeopardy. Closer to home, so too does the GOP in the U.S. midterm elections in November—especially if the GOP remains closely associated with its unpopular leaders and their hugely unpopular policies. (A new CBS News poll shows support for Trump-Vance policies in the toilet with fewer than a third of those polled supporting their handling of inflation, 35 percent support for their handling of the economy, 36 percent support for their debacle in Iran and only 41 percent support for their management of immigration issues.)
When it comes to his biggest substantive role yet in diplomatic matters, Vance’s trip to Pakistan to lead the U.S. delegation in negotiations with Iran was also a complete fail. Only five Americans, none experts in the issues in play, showed up to negotiate with 60 Iranians. Vance was not really empowered to negotiate, only to offer Trumpian ultimatums. Those did not go over well with the Iranians who feel as though the longer this war goes on, the more leverage they gain.
After less than a day of talks, Vance and company declared defeat and headed home. They achieved nothing. The hugely costly, unpopular, illegal Trump-Netanyahu war against Iran was not only no closer to a solution but within hours Trump announced a blockade of Iran that was certain to exacerbate the global energy crisis, unsettle markets and lead to further conflict.
Given two meaningful jobs, Vance failed at both.
Given how unpleasant Vance is, you may feel a bit of schadenfreude welling up. Couldn’t happen to a bigger creep, you might be thinking.
And you would be forgiven if that was your first impulse.
But, Vance’s humongous double-failure is not something to celebrate merely because it takes the arrogant prick down a notch or two.
No, there are bigger reasons to celebrate it.
Because the Orban defeat really is a blow to Trump and the GOP’s hard right. Not just because Orban was their rockstar or because it was overall, a good day for democracy, for Europe, for Ukraine, and for American interests. It was also a blow because if investigations now take place into the Orban’s corruption it is almost certain that ties to the Kremlin and dirty Russian money and to American political leaders and groups will be further exposed. Trump can control the DoJ. But the more investigations that take place worldwide that can reveal the extent of his corruption or his ties to Epstein or other such matters of high sleaze, the worse an already bad 2026 is going to be for Trump and Vance.
And all those are very good things.
So too, are the lessons of the Hungarian victory that may be applied here in the U.S. One, the way to beat autocrats who are inclined to cheat is to maximize turnout. Make the margin of victory too big for anyone to cry foul. Two, make demanding accountability a centerpiece of the campaign as Magyar has (and did again in his victory remarks). Voters are disgusted with corruption and abuses of power and want to make sure that leaders don’t skate off with their ill-gotten gains or having damaged their countries but never have been penalized for it.
But to my way of thinking, there is something even more important to be derived from Hungarian campaign. While Magyar was a center-right candidate he was also clearly pro-democracy, pro-EU and pro-NATO. Clear stances on matters of principle matter. But also, right vs. left old school political debates are pretty meaningless in this day and age. Orban’s message, like Trump and Vance and MAGA’s, is one that celebrates returning to the past. Magyar’s message was about the future, about making Hungary work for Hungarians in the context of the world that lies ahead.
If Americans who oppose Trump and Vance take away one thing from this, I hope it is a commitment to reject old arguments about where candidates or voters fall on “the political spectrum” and to focus instead on the key dividing line issue in our politics today, that of the differences between those who seek to turn back the clock and those who want to chart a new course for a stronger, more prosperous, more peaceful American future.
Clearly, such a future is one in which we finally put asinine, costly, indecent wars like the one currently being fought in Iran behind us…as well as rejecting the old ideas guiding Trump foreign policy (like imperialism or out-of-control American exceptionalism or corporatist, oligarch-driven hypercapitalism). Wars like that with Iran are impediments to our achieving our best future and, as it happens, suit the goals and objectives of our potential rivals in the new geopolitical reality we are entering…notably the Chinese.
The Iran War is Trump distracting from his decades old scandal with Epstein by acting on his still festering anger that a Black man became president and actually achieved some good in the world (like the original nuclear deal with Iran…which Trump tore up…and the terms of which we will be lucky to recreate). In so doing, he is emulating the foreign policy of neocons he once condemned and neo-imperialists from the late 19th Century. He is squandering what we should be investing in our people and in R&D and infrastructure and education in order to better compete in the rapidly changing global economic environment and thereby he is not only causing death and destruction today but he is doing damage whose toll will grow for many years to come.
In other words, there are many reasons to savor Vance’s struggles but the most important among them is that they could very well help restore the focus of the American people on the issues that really matter and, above all, on the paramount importance of looking forward rather than trying to cling to a past we would do well to put behind us.
