Why I Didn't Fall into the Thrall of an EV
Yes, EVs are better for the environment. But the technology is young and still balky -- just ask Tesla owners -- and the infrastructure isn't anywhere near ready.
BY HOWARD TULLMAN, GENERAL MANAGING PARTNER, G2T3V AND CHICAGO HIGH TECH INVESTORS@TULLMAN
We're approaching the end of the first phase of EV adoption - first movers, early adopters, tech bros with more bucks than brains, suburban keeper-uppers, and a few folks who think they're doing something cool for the climate all seem to have shopped their fill. And, notwithstanding the fact that the first-generation Teslas painfully shake, rattle, and roll after a few months of driving, there's been no apparent rush among these early buyers to trade in their "beta" versions for later, better-built models that are built to last. Plenty of these folks will tell you, if they're being honest, that the early Teslas weren't released by Elon -- they just escaped into the wild.
And no one, with a straight face, will claim that the fit, finishes, and details of the early Teslas were anything to be proud of. The tech was great and unique; the trim, finishes, and detailing were second rate at best. Not that the owners will necessarily admit it, because most of them would rather die than die of embarrassment, but they bought a pig in a poke, waited forever to get it, and now they're living with it, but not necessarily happy about it. A recent suit by unhappy customers in California complaining about repair issues is just one of the latest examples. To keep up with their peers, they bought these beasts and now they're locked in. In the world of emerging technology, it's often just as bad to be too early as it is to be too late.
Don't feel bad for these people because there are no victims here, they all absolutely deserve each other and the beating they're taking. And the fact that Elon is rapidly turning himself into a pariah means that the cars are becoming the newest version of mobile scarlet letters with a "T" instead of an "A". The only thing that has fallen faster than the value of a used Tesla 3 is the value of Twitter.
Disruptive innovation typically proceeds in a fairly linear fashion - early efforts are inexpensive, rough around the edges, and bound up with cheap materials because investing in the finer aspects of the product doesn't make a lot of sense until it's clear that someone wants to buy whatever it is that's being sold. It's a bottom-up business strategy that relies on the fact that established competitors usually ridicule or ignore new startup entrants until it's too late. The Chinese took over key parts of the U.S. steel business by starting at the very bottom with cheap, ugly, and inexpensive rebar and they built their market penetration and expansion into higher quality and more expensive specialty steel from that initial product platform.
An important sign that we've reached the end of the early going is the fact that every major automobile manufacturer now has a suite of electric vehicles for sale. And these new offerings are a serious step up in comfort, finishes, and amenities from the still stripped-down Tesla models. Detroit is no longer asleep at the switch and the biggest global players understand that -- while the basic technology will soon be commoditized - they have recaptured an opportunity to sell "steel" at scale rather than just "smarts" to the next generation of owners. This group will, once again, be looking for all the quality and the high-end bells-and-whistles they're used to getting for luxury-car pricing. Tesla maxed out the price part of the equation, but dropped the ball on the perks that matter the most in the long term.
It's clear that either Elon still thinks that this game is all about technology, which it clearly no longer is, or his factories can't pivot to creating high-end and high-cost Tesla versions that are qualitatively competitive with the best EVs from Porsche, BMW, Benz and GM. He's dropping the prices on every model pretty dramatically and that trend is likely to continue, especially outside of the U.S. A far less attractive explanation for Tesla's problems (not counting the Twitter and SpaceX distractions) is that Elon thinks that the next true differentiator will be fully autonomous driving while almost the entire rest of the world -- and all of its regulatory authorities -- believe that it will be at least a decade or two from today. If at all. Things may be smooth in the open highways and bright sunny climates, but there's not a major city east of the Mississippi where anyone would trust a self-driving car to last for 15 minutes.
In addition, there's a much more troublesome set of obstacles on the horizon because (a) the problems to date are only being experienced by the very small population of EV owners, and (b) most EV owners decided that it really wasn't in their interest to broadcast just what a pain in the ass it has been to own and operate an EV, because misery loves company. The trick to happily owning a Tesla is to not mind that it hurts. As the number of EV owners continues to grow, the problems will only multiply over time.
But don't expect the present owners to tell you their troubles. Pain is fleeting, but pride is forever and none of these folks want to admit that maybe they were a little premature and certainly that they sold a bill of goods as well. It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.
Here are just a few of the things that everyone should know before deciding whether to take the EV plunge.
(1) Just like cockroaches, there's never just one person waiting in line at your favorite EV charging station - take a number, bring a book, and count on a couple of wasted hours.
(2) Charging your EV is an everyday event somewhere - whether you like it or not. You've already got a day job and maybe a dog, but here's another chore to make sure you keep busy.
(3) There's nothing like a cold Chicago winter to suck the life out of your EV battery and cut the time you've got in reserve to a mere fraction of what you've been promised.
(4) Never buy a car that you can't push. When the electrical system on an EV fails, the whole dashboard, all the assistive technology, and just about everything else disappears. You'd do better at that point to be driving a golf cart.
(5) Elon learned how to build a car but, in his trademark arrogance, never thought about repairs or maintenance. Minor dents cost a fortune to fix because you have to take apart whole sections of the vehicle to access certain critical components, which is something that Detroit mechanics can do blindfolded in seconds on their vehicles because their design engineers thought ahead.
(6) Millions of people live in multi-family residential units and, if they're lucky, there's now a charging station or two for their entire garage. Worse yet, many condo associations and co-ops won't let individuals install their own chargers even at their own expense. It's not much better at your office garage or nearby parking lot.
(7) There are broken public charging stations, which the locator apps fail to disclose; there are chargers whose plugs aren't universal or compatible with your vehicle; and there are growing indications that in major population centers the electrical grid itself is already insufficient to handle the projected daily loads of charging millions of EVs.
Bottom line: while there may be use cases and even users for whom EVs make sense, the smart money is on taking it slow and letting someone else be the guinea pig as the OEMs learn that the car is only one important part of the ecosystem required to deliver a safe, secure and satisfactory EV experience at scale. After six months of trying to talk myself into an EV, I settled for an embarrassingly overpowered, gas-guzzling Mercedes AMG GT63s with all the frills possible. That certainly doesn't make me an adventurer, but I'm pretty certain that I'm always gonna get where I'm going in style.
