Monday, September 08, 2025

The (Not-So-)Interim Docket

 

177. The (Not-So-)Interim Docket

Justice Kavanaugh's attempt to re-brand how the Supreme Court handles emergency applications is belied by how the Supreme Court is actually handling emergency applications.

Most of the headlines out of the Supreme Court last week came from public comments by the justices—whether by Justice Barrett as she launches her book tour or by Justice Kavanaugh at the Sixth Circuit Judicial Conference in Memphis, Tennessee. Given the paucity of action from the Court itself, I thought I’d use this week’s “Long Read” to reflect a bit on the latter—both Justice Kavanaugh’s (continuing) effort to rebrand the body of rulings the Court hands down on emergency applications as the “interim docket,” and his conciliatory tone, in a room full of judges, about the difficult position the Court’s recent behavior has put lower courts in. Indeed, what both of these things have in common is the Grand Canyon-sized chasm between what Justice Kavanaugh is saying in public and what he (and a majority of the Court) is actually doing in these cases.

Whatever people want to call the Court’s flurry of rulings on emergency applications (a debate that strikes me as an exasperatingly underinformed distraction), it is impossible to look at what the justices (Kavanaugh foremost among them) are saying about the impacts of these rulings, or the real-world effects the rulings are actually producing, and conclude that any label that downplays their significance is remotely accurate. For migrants who have been sent to third countries without due process; for federal employees who have lost their jobs and have virtually no chance of getting them back; for federal grant recipients who have lost funding on which their research has depended; and for lower-court judges who were chastised just two weeks ago by Justices Gorsuch and (you guessed it) Kavanaugh for not doing enough to guess what the implications of even unexplained interventions by the justices are, there is very little about the Supreme Court’s recent behavior respecting emergency applications that seems remotely “interim.”

But first, the (other) news.


On the Docket

The only actions out of the full Court last week came Friday morning, with the last of three sets of “housekeeping” orders from the summer. My only surprise from that list was its non-inclusion of a denial of rehearing in Apache Stronghold v. United States (a cert. petition the Court denied, over two dissents, back in May). That suggests that the petition for rehearing has received at least some attention within the Court (and, perhaps, someone is writing respecting its disposition). The Court hasn’t granted a petition for rehearing since 2018.

I was also a bit surprised that we didn’t hear later on Friday about the Trump administration’s motion to (significantly) expedite the Court’s consideration of whether to take up the tariffs case (and the merits of that case)—given that the motion asks the Court to grant certiorari by this Wednesday, with briefing to follow and oral argument the first week of November. But I suspect we’ll hear more on that shortly (including, perhaps, the grant of certiorari the government is seeking).

The Trump administration also filed yet another emergency application at the Court on Thursday (its 24th in 32 weeks), this one seeking not just a stay of lower-court rulings that blocked the removal of the one Democratic commissioner left on the Federal Trade Commission (and an administrative stay while the Court decides on the stay), but “certiorari before judgment” so that the Court can take up, before the D.C. Circuit, the question of whether Humphrey’s Executor is, in fact, still good law. The fact that Chief Justice Roberts has yet to call for a response suggests that something more significant is coming—again, perhaps, the grant of plenary review the government is seeking.

The other Court-related news of the week came either from the justices or from lower-court judges talking about the justices. The two most significant examples of the latter include Lawrence Hurley’s remarkable reporting, posted on Thursday, about concerns that a dozen different lower-court judges have raised about the Supreme Court’s behavior to date in the Trump-related cases; and Judge Burroughs’ forceful opinion in the Harvard case on Wednesday, in which she pushed back rather aggressively against the criticisms of lower courts in Justice Gorsuch’s NIH concurrence (footnote 9, in particular, is a doozy). There was also an “apology” from Judge Young (one of the district court judges Gorsuch accused of defying the Court), although (1) it’s not clear to me that Young wasn’t being at least a little bit sarcastic; and (2) it provoked a highly unusual public defense (of Young) from retired Justice Stephen Breyer. That Breyer felt impelled to say something publicly is all the sign you should need of how fraught the relationship is right now between any number of lower-court judges and the justices in the majority in these cases.

Turning to this week, nothing formal is expected from the Court, but it’s likely we’ll see movement on several of the pending emergency applications—and, perhaps, some new ones, as well. The Trump administration’s application in the Southern California roving arrests case has now been pending for more than a month. South Carolina’s application in the transgender student bathroom access case (which I wrote about last week) is also ripe for a ruling this week. And in addition to the new application flagged above in Trump v. Slaughter (the FTC case), it seems likely that the government will be back at the Court as early as today for a stay in the foreign aid impoundment case—after a divided D.C. Circuit on Friday night denied a stay of Judge Ali’s latest ruling. Yet again, then, the Court is going to be focused on a flurry of high-profile emergency applications at a time when it’s usually focused on other things—in this case, gearing up for the Long Conference, which is three weeks from today.


The One First “Long Read”:
Describe What We Say, Not What We Do

The title of my book notwithstanding, I didn’t coin the term “shadow docket.” As a reference to the U.S. Supreme Court, that distinction belongs to University of Chicago law professor Will Baude, who first used it in 2015 as an evocative but primarily descriptive shorthand for all of the Supreme Court’s orders—everything from denials of certiorari to summary reversals to “GVRs” (orders granting certiorari, vacating, and remanding for further proceedings), and in between.

Will’s definitionlike mine, was not meant to be demeaning; rather, it was a reference to the obscurity and inscrutability that surrounds all of these rulings—how little is understood, even by experts, about how the Court processes these cases internallyhow difficult to parse the Court’s rulings often are (including why the Court ruled the way it did and which justices voted which way); and how some of these rulings can even come down in the literal—and not just proverbial—shadows, with major decisions at times being released even in the wee small hours.¹

Although shadows are the natural result of placing an object in front of a light source, the term “shadow docket” has been criticized as pejorative by at least some of the justices (and many of the Court’s defenders) ever since Justice Alito’s September 2021 speech at Notre Dame Law School—under the not-so-subtle title “The Emergency Docket.” “Recently,” Alito complained, “the catchy and sinister term ‘shadow docket’ has been used to portray the Court as having been captured by a dangerous cabal that resorts to sneaky and improper methods to get its ways. This portrayal feeds unprecedented efforts to intimidate the Court or damage it as an independent institution.”

Indeed, September 2021 had been something of a coming-out party for public awareness of the shadow docket—thanks largely to the Court’s rather stunning (and only briefly-explained) refusal to block Texas’s near-total abortion ban from going into effect, and the widespread public criticism that decision provoked. Although the Court had used the shadow docket for an unprecedented flurry of significant rulings on emergency applications throughout the October 2020 Term (in both election- and COVID-related cases), it really was the Texas abortion case that moved the debate over the Court’s behavior (and the much-less-important debate over what to call it) into mainstream discourse.²

Of course, anyone who has actually read either Will’s work or mine would know that neither of us ever viewed the “shadow docket” as coextensive with emergency applications; the latter were merely a subset of the former. Will’s 2015 essay, for instance, focused principally on summary merits rulings by the full Court at the certiorari stage. And the first two chapters of my book are all about the rise of certiorari and its consequences—which is, in the main, a far bigger part of the Supreme Court’s workload than even the recent spate of Trump-related “emergencies.” (Ditto the first-ever post for this newsletter, back in November 2022.)

Nevertheless, the campaign to re-christen one small (but especially significant) part of the shadow docket was on. Even Justice Kagan, the first justice to publicly use “shadow docket” descriptively,³ switched to the “emergency docket” when she was writing not just for the Democratic appointees, but for Chief Justice Roberts. The issue, apparently, wasn’t the substance of critiques from Justice Kagan (or outsiders like me) about how the Court was ruling on emergency applications; it was the “catchy but worn-out rhetoric about the ‘shadow docket,’” as Justice Kavanaugh complained in a February 2022 concurrence.

Even though we went through all of this back then, the rebranding operation has gained new steam in the right-of-center commentariat world—and, as was the case in 2021–22, at the exact same time as the Court has come under sustained, and now renewed, public criticism for how it is handling emergency applications. (You might think that’s more than a coincidence; I couldn’t possibly comment.)

The latest salvo came Thursday, as part of Justice Kavanaugh’s informal remarks at the Sixth Circuit Judicial Conference. According to media reports, Kavanaugh pushed for calling the Court’s body of rulings on emergency applications the “interim docket,” and also went out of his way to emphasize the difficult position that all of these cases have put the justices in; and the challenges lower courts face in trying to figure out what to make of the Court’s unsigned and un- or thinly-explained rulings.

Leaving aside the interesting question of why Justice Kavanaugh doesn’t like Alito’s “emergency docket” terminology (I have a theory), there are, in my view, two very big reasons why calling the Court’s body of rulings on applications the “interim docket” is far more misleading than critics of the “shadow docket” terminology have claimed that that term is.

First, as a practical matter, the Court’s interventions in these cases are producing massive, permanent, and almost certainly irrevocable effects. When the Court allowed the Trump administration to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 600,000 Venezuelan migrants, that subjected many of those individuals to immediate arrest, detention, and removal from the country—removal that will almost certainly be impossible to undo even if the Court ultimately agrees with the lower courts that the revocation was unlawful.

When the Court allowed the Trump administration to fire more than 1400 employees of the Department of Education, that not only upended those folks’ lives, but it almost certainly led them to make other arrangements—new jobs; moving to new cities; etc.—that can’t be undone even if the Court ultimately decides that the government crossed the line. Ironically, it would be easier to describe these rulings as “interim” rulings if the Court was properly accounting for these irreparable harms, since a case could be made that the rulings are more about the equities than the merits. But the Court has silently (and inconsistently) moved away from that traditional, equitable analysis, one result of which is that these harms have mounted—rendering the “interim” tag increasingly inapt.

And that’s with respect to cases that might get back to the Court on the merits; there are plenty of “interim” rulings by the justices that will never come back—e.g., when the Court denies a stay of execution or when the party that loses at the emergency application stage otherwise drops the dispute (like California in the 2021 COVID cases). Thus, referring to the body of rulings in these cases as the “interim docket” is radically downplaying not just the real-world effects of the Court’s interventions, but the number of cases in which the Court’s intervention at the “interim” stage is its only one—because it conclusively resolved the dispute. When the Court closed the door to most universal injunctions in its ruling on the emergency applications in the birthright citizenship case, the whole point of the Court’s intervention, as Justice Kavanaugh himself underscored in his concurrence, was to provide conclusive guidance to lower courts about the proper scope of injunctions.

Second, as a precedential matter, although Justice Alito insisted in his 2021 speech that these rulings don’t create precedents, we now know better—thanks to the Court’s cryptic May order in Trump v. Boyle and a series of separate opinions from the justices applying Boyle since then. Whether or not one thinks rulings on emergency applications can or should have precedential effects, the Court has now repeatedly insisted that they do. And in his concurrence in the NIH case, Justice Gorsuch went further—heavily criticizing lower-court judges in three cases for defying the Court’s rulings on emergency applications, even though one of the rulings at issue was completely unexplained and the others were at least arguably distinguishable from the subsequent cases.

I’ve written elsewhere about what’s wrong with Gorsuch’s NIH concurrence; the relevant point for present purposes is that, if that’s how you view the doctrinal effect of the Court’s rulings on emergency applications (and Justice Kavanaugh joined Gorsuch’s NIH concurrence in full), then it’s no more accurate to call those decisions “interim” rulings than it would be to use that term for a ruling on the merits docket in a case that wasn’t final in the lower courts—such as an appeal of a grant or denial of a preliminary injunction or some other interlocutory order. In both contexts, the Court is making law, explicitly or implicitly, that it is expecting lower courts to follow in different cases. Indeed, Justice Gorsuch made a version of this exact point in NIH—in explaining why merits docket rulings on non-final appeals can also create precedents.

Thus, and unlike what was true as recently as the late 1970s, when even high-profile emergency applications were handled by individual justices “in chambers” and no one thought their rulings had precedential effects, the doctrinal consequences of the Court’s interventions makes it increasingly difficult to describe them as “interim” decisions.

***

I’ll confess that I wasn’t surprised by Justice Kavanaugh’s attempted re-branding on Thursday; this argument is all over his concurring opinion in the birthright citizenship/universal injunction case. But what’s really striking to me is the disconnect between the rest of Kavanaugh’s remarks on Thursday and the Gorsuch concurrence he had joined just 13 days earlier.

If you’re a lower-court judge genuinely puzzling over how to handle the Court’s unexplained or thinly explained rulings in these cases, the lesson of the Gorsuch NIH opinion sure appears to be that judges must divine the substantive significance of even unexplained rulings (like the first ruling in D.V.D.), and that good-faith arguments for why a second case is distinguishable from the first are only appropriate to consider if five justices are ultimately going to endorse them. As I wrote at the time, the Court may have the raw power to behave that way, but it’s more than a little disrespectful toward lower courts. For Justice Kavanaugh to turn around on Thursday and play up the difficult position in which lower courts are finding themselves in these cases is rather striking given his own role in making their position so difficult in the first place.

And that brings me back to the item I briefly flagged in the round-up, above—Lawrence Hurley’s story for NBC about lower-court judges from across the ideological spectrum expressing mounting frustration with the justices’ behavior. If I were a Supreme Court justice (that’d be the day), I would view that story as a massive red flag—and I’d be thinking about ways to provide reassurance to my colleagues on the lower courts that we weren’t trying to undermine them. And rather than (or, at least, in addition to) delivering empty platitudes at a semi-public judicial conference and trying to re-brand what those rulings are called, I might think about whether my own behavior in those cases ought to change.

Alas.


SCOTUS Trivia:
“Maybe We Should Write These Down?”

In a future post, I’m planning to walk through the fascinating history of how the Supreme Court has relayed its rulings to the public over time—a history that is more complicated, and involves much more interesting separation-of-powers dynamics, than folks might initially expect.

One kernel in that history is the fact that, from the Founding until well into the nineteenth century, the justices delivered their opinions orally—even after the practice of handing down one opinion for the full Court became standardized under Chief Justice Oliver Ellsworth (and, later, Chief Justice John Marshall). The job of the early Supreme Court reporters, who weren’t salaried (they made money only from the sales of their reports) was to correctly recount the oral summary from the bench (a practice in which, to be fair, the justices regularly assisted). The result is that there are at least some rulings by the Supreme Court in its first decades that do not appear in any published reports. (In 1817, Congress first created a salaried position at the Court for a “Reporter of Decisions.”)

The trivia is when that practice ended. On March 14, 1834, the Court adopted a brief order requiring every opinion to be reduced to writing and delivered to the Reporter of Decisions. Thus, from that point onwards, there ought to be at least an archived copy of every decision by the full Court. But even then, it wasn’t until 1874 that Congress finally provided funds for the Court to publish its rulings itself (the birth of the United States Reports); and it was only starting in 1883 that the Court finally committed to publishing every single opinion it handed down.

Those were the days.

Sunday, September 07, 2025

EZRA KLEIN - VERY TIMELY AND IMPORTANT

 

Ezra Klein

Stop Acting Like This Is Normal

 

By Ezra Klein

Opinion Columnist

  • Sept. 7, 2025

 

In a few weeks the government’s funding will run out. If Democrats vote for a new spending bill, they will be funding Trump’s autocratic takeover — and I don’t see how they can.

 

If Democrats Have a Better Plan, I’d Like to Hear It

In a few weeks the government’s funding will run out. If Democrats vote for a new spending bill, they will be funding Trump’s autocratic takeover — and I don’t see how they can.

In about three weeks, the government’s funding will run out. Democrats will face a choice: Join Republicans to fund a government that President Trump is turning into a tool of authoritarian takeover and vengeance or shut the government down.

Democrats faced a version of this choice back in March. DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, was chain-sawing its way through the government. Civil servants were being fired left and right. Government grants and payments were being choked off and reworked into tools of political power and punishment. Trump was signing executive orders demanding the investigation — I would say, the persecution — of his enemies. He had announced shocking tariffs on Mexico and Canada. We were in the muzzle velocity stage of this presidency. And Democrats seemed completely overwhelmed and outmatched.

I often heard people complain that Democrats lacked a message. What Democrats really lacked was power. They didn’t have the House or the Senate, but they did have one sliver of leverage: To fund the government, Senate Republicans needed Democratic votes. And not just one or two. They needed at least seven Democrats to reach that magic 60-vote threshold. House Democrats wanted a shutdown. But Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Senate Democrats, didn’t. He voted for the funding bill and encouraged a crucial number of his colleagues to do the same. The bill passed.

To many Democrats, this seemed insane. Some began openly calling for Schumer to resign or face a primary challenge. This was Democrats’ first real opportunity to fight back against Trump, and they had folded. What were they good for?

During this period, I talked to Schumer, to House leadership, to members of Congress with different theories of what should be done. I didn’t think it was an easy call. The House’s argument — Hakeem Jeffries’s argument — was that a shutdown creates a crisis. A crisis creates attention. And attention gives Democrats the chance to make their case, to be heard by the American people.

The argument Schumer made was threefold. First, Trump was being stopped in the courts. There were dozens of cases playing out against him, and he was losing again and again and again. Shut down the government, and you might shut down the courts.

Second, DOGE was trying to gut the executive branch. When the government falls into a funding crisis, the executive gets more authority to decide where the money the government does have goes. In that chaos, DOGE could go further and faster.

After all, it’s Democrats who want the government to work. It was Trump and DOGE looking for every opportunity to dismantle it. A shutdown wasn’t leverage against Trump. It was leverage against the Democrats’ own priorities.

Third, the market was quaking at the threat of Trump’s tariffs. Trump had promised a strong economy and low prices, and instead he was creating chaos. If Democrats triggered a shutdown at the exact moment Trump was creating an economic crisis, they would confuse who was to blame for the chaos — was it Trump or them? It’s the first rule of politics: When your opponents are drowning, do not throw them a lifeline.

And I thought there was a fourth argument: Democrats had not prepared for a shutdown. They had not explained why they were shutting the government down or what they wanted to achieve. They had no strategy. They had no message. The demand I was hearing them make was that the spending bill needed more bipartisan negotiation. It was unbearably lame.

If you had forced me to choose, I would have said Schumer was probably right. It wasn’t the time for a shutdown — in part because Democrats weren’t prepared to win one.

But the bill that passed back in March funding the government runs out at the end of this month. And so we’re facing the question again: Should Senate Democrats partner with Senate Republicans to fund this government?

I don’t see how they can.

Not a single argument Schumer made then is valid now. First, Trump is not losing in the Supreme Court, which has weighed in again and again on his behalf. Instead of reprimanding Trump for his executive order unilaterally erasing the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of citizenship to all born here, it reprimanded the lower courts for imposing a national freeze on his order in the way they did. It has shown him extraordinary deference to the way he is exercising power. I recently asked Kate Shaw, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania, what powers the recent Supreme Court decisions seem to grant Trump that Barack Obama or Joe Biden just didn’t think they had when they were president.

Here’s what she said: “Refuse to spend money appropriated by Congress. Remove heads of independent agencies protected by statute from summary firing. Fire civil servants without cause. Dismantle federal agencies. Call up the National Guard on the thinnest of pretexts. That’s a preliminary half-dozen powers.”

Obama and Biden, she added, “didn’t think they had the power to disregard statutes passed by Congress and the text of the Constitution. They didn’t think they had the power to do things like treat the presidency as an office that permits its occupant to use the power of the state to reward friends and punish enemies and engage in self-dealing and enrichment.”

Schumer’s argument in March was that the courts were stopping Trump; let them do their work. What we can say in September is that no, John Roberts is not going to stop Donald Trump.

Second, the scale of DOGE’s assault on the government has shrunk. Trump and Elon Musk went through a messy and public breakup. But the real reason it didn’t continue, I suspect, is that it’s Trump appointees running these agencies now. They don’t want their own agencies wrecked. They don’t want to be blamed for the failures that might result. They need staff. And either way, the Supreme Court has given Trump vast power to reshape the federal work force in the way he chooses. He doesn’t need a shutdown to do it.

Third, the markets have settled into whatever this new normal is, at least for now. Trump’s tariffs are unpopular, but what damage they have done to him politically they have already done or they will do over time, as price increases squeeze Americans. We are not in a recession. The economy is not in chaos. Democrats cannot stand back and hope the markets will do their work for them.

But something else has changed, too. We are no longer in the muzzle velocity stage of this presidency. We are in the authoritarian consolidation stage of this presidency.

I want to be very clear about what I am saying here. Donald Trump is corrupting the government — he is using it to hound his enemies, to line his pockets and to entrench his own power. He is corrupting it the way the Mafia would corrupt the industries it controlled. You could still, under Mafia rule, get the trash picked up or buy construction materials. But the point of those industries had become the preservation and expansion of the Mafia’s power and wealth. This is what Trump is doing to the government. This is what Democrats cannot fund. This is what they have to try to stop.

Just in the past few months, we’ve watched Trump fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he didn’t like the jobs data. We watched him fire the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency after it suggested that the administration’s strike on Iran set its nuclear weapons program back by only months.

We watched him muse about firing Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and now we’re watching him try to fire Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, for alleged mortgage fraud. We’ve watched Trump sic his government on Senator Adam Schiff of California and Attorney General Tish James of New York — again, allegations of mortgage fraud. I will note that this is not coming after an exhaustive review of the mortgage documents of every person serving across the executive branch under Trump. This is what authoritarian governments do: Look hard enough, and all people have done something wrong, and even if they haven’t, you can cause them a lot of trouble by just saying they have.

We’ve watched Trump’s F.B.I. raid John Bolton’s house — Bolton, whom Trump hates because he became a critic of him after serving in his first administration. We’ve watched Trump threaten to investigate Chris Christie, a former New Jersey governor, after Christie criticized him on television. We’ve watched the Trump administration force the resignations of Republican prosecutors who would not drop their case against Mayor Eric Adams of New York after the administration seemed to decide it would be more convenient to have Adams in its pocket than defending himself in court. We’ve watched Trump suggest that the Federal Communications Commission should pull the broadcast licenses for NBC and ABC. Trump has an enemies list, and he is using the power of the federal government to punish and harass his foes.

We’ve watched the Trump family invest heavily in crypto, even starting its own coins, and then use its political power and fame to funnel in investment. We’ve watched Trump accept a luxury jet as a gift from Qatar. We’ve watched, over the past few years, as the Saudis and the Qataris and the Emirates have made huge investments, billions of dollars, in Trump family businesses and crypto coins. We’re watching countries like India and Vietnam and Qatar race to build Trump golf courses and towers. In March, Forbes estimated that Trump’s worth had more than doubled, to more than $5 billion, over the past year. “It pays to be king,” Forbes wrote.

We’ve watched Trump deploy the National Guard to Los Angeles and then to Washington, with more cities expected to come under federal military occupation soon. We’ve watched masked ICE agents conducting raids all over the country, refusing to reveal badge numbers or warrants. We’ve watched Trump systematically purge the government of inspectors general, of military JAGs and officers, of federal prosecutors — anyone who might stand in the way of his corruption or his accumulation or exercise of power. It is astonishing that the Jan. 6 rioters have been pardoned and that dozens of the Justice Department lawyers who prosecuted them have been fired.

This is not just how authoritarianism happens. This is authoritarianism happening.

Look at Trump, in his Oval Office festooned with gold, with his masked agents roaming the streets; listen to the cabinet meetings where his appointees compete to lavish him with the kind of praise that would have made Saddam Hussein blush.

Here’s Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East:

There’s only one thing I wish for: that that Nobel Committee finally gets its act together and realizes that you are the single finest candidate since the Nobel Peace award was ever talked about, to receive that award. Your success is game-changing out in the world today and I hope everybody wakes up one day and realizes that.

Tell me this is not what authoritarianism looks and sounds like.

And so the question is: What are Democrats going to do about it? What can they do about it?

I was talking with a Democratic senator I respect, and he asked me a good question: Everything you say about what Trump is doing might be true. Everything you say about the kind of emergency this is might be right. But is a government shutdown the answer? Or is it a desire for emotional catharsis that might be self-defeating? Sometimes the best strategy is restraint.

The case for a shutdown is this: A shutdown is an attentional event. It’s an effort to turn the diffuse crisis of Trump’s corrupting of the government into an acute crisis that the media, that the public, will actually pay attention to.

Right now, Democrats have no power, so no one cares what they have to say. A shutdown would make people listen. But then Democrats would have to actually win the argument. They would need to have an argument. They would need a clear set of demands that kept them on the right side of public opinion and dramatized what is happening to the country right now.

In my head, the argument is something like this: Trump won the election. He is the legitimate president. But the government has to serve the people and be accountable to the people. ICE can conduct legitimate deportations, but there can’t be masked agents roaming the streets refusing to identify themselves or their authority. The Trump family cannot be hoovering in money and investments from the countries that depend on us and that fear our power and our sanctions. There have to be inspectors general and JAGs and career prosecutors watching to make sure the government is being run on behalf of the people rather than on behalf of the Trump family.

Democrats would have to pick a small set of policies and stick to that. They would have to choose those policies wisely. They would have to hold the line even when it got tough.

And right now, Democrats have not picked those policies or settled on that message. Right now, they are no more prepared for a shutdown than they were in March. There is a huge debate inside the party on whether they should talk about Trump’s corruption and authoritarianism or instead say that armed troops in Washington are a distraction from the price of groceries and health care. And there is the reality that Democrats’ best issue is health care, and Trump looting Medicaid to pay for tax cuts is the kind of thing they should never let voters forget. I don’t think it’s impossible to turn this into one message.

Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia did a pretty good job of it back in July. “Corruption is why they just defunded nursing homes to cut taxes for the rich,” he told a crowd of his supporters. “Corruption is why you pay a fortune for prescriptions. Corruption is why your insurance claim keeps getting denied. Corruption is why hedge funds get to buy up all the houses in your neighborhood, driving you out of the market, and then your corporate landlord ignores your calls during a gas leak. Corruption is why that ambulance costs $3,000 after you just had to get your choking toddler to the hospital.”

“So Trump promised to attack a broken system,” Ossoff continued. “I get it. Ripe target. But here’s the thing. He’s a crook. And a con man. And he wants to be a king. Yes, the system really is rigged, but Trump’s not unrigging it. He’s re-rigging it for himself.”

But Democrats cannot pretend this is a normal Republican administration. They cannot ignore masked agents in the streets, armed troops in the cities, billions of dollars of money going into the Trump family’s pockets, an administration that spins off several scandals in a week that would have consumed other presidencies for years. If Democrats cannot make an issue out of all that, then they are screwed and so are we.

And we might be. Even if Democrats could agree on a message, do they have the messengers? Have Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer distinguished themselves as able to win an argument? Are they going to hold the line as national parks close down, as federal employees are furloughed, if checks stop going out the door, if flights are delayed because air traffic controllers aren’t getting paid? I don’t know that they will. I am quite certain that this moment deserves real opposition — that Democrats, morally speaking, should not fund a government that Trump is turning into a tool of personal enrichment and power. But I am not certain that Democrats can win a shutdown — I am not certain that they have the leaders that they need. It is absolutely the case that Democrats could lose a shutdown, but whatever they’re doing right now, it’s not called winning.

According to Gallup, the Democratic Party is polling at 34 percent — its lowest level in the decades that Gallup has been asking the question. The Democratic Party is polling lower than Donald Trump and lower than the Republican Party.

Democrats are this unpopular because their own side is losing faith in them. Before the election, 87 percent of Republicans approved of the Republican Party, and 92 percent of Democrats approved of the Democratic Party. Since then, Republicans’ approval of their party has jumped to 91 percent, and Democrats’ approval of their party has fallen to 73 percent.

That matters. Enthusiasm matters. Trust matters. Democrats don’t just need people to want them to win; they need people willing to help them win. And that’s where things are getting tricky. One flashing warning sign is fund-raising: Democrats are failing to raise money. The Democratic National Committee has been an absolute disaster — at the end of June, it had $15 million on hand; compare that with the Republican National Committee’s $80 million.

And why would you approve of or donate to the Democratic Party right now? If you are frightened or appalled by what is happening, what are Democrats offering you?

The political scientist Russell Hardin made an argument I think about a lot: Power is a coordination problem. Trump can’t do much on his own. The advantage he has is the power to create coordination — he can send clearer signals, he has a louder megaphone, he can wield stronger punishments and rewards.

People do what others do. Each law firm that bent the knee to Trump made it harder for the next firm to say no. The universities that fell to Trump created the same problem — that’s why it mattered when Harvard fought back. Everyone in society — every person, every institution — is a node of coordination. And if you look at Democrats in Congress right now, the signal they’re sending is not to take any risks. Everything is normal. Just wait for the election. I think sending that signal is a mistake.

The 2026 midterms are 14 months away. The machinery of the state is being organized to entrench Republican power through redistricting, to control information, to punish and harass enemies, to create a masked paramilitary force roaming the streets and carrying out Trump’s commands. Do you just let that roll forward and hope for the best?

I’m not going to tell you I am absolutely sure Democrats should shut the government down. I’m not. At the same time, joining Republicans to fund this government is worse than failing at opposition. It’s complicity.

I’m not a political strategist. I hope somebody has better ideas than I do. But it’s been about six months since Schumer decided that it wasn’t the time for a fight, that neither he nor the country was ready. Democratic leaders have had six months to come up with a plan. If there’s a better plan than a shutdown, great. But if the plan is still nothing, then Democrats need new leaders.

WHERE IS PEDO DON?


 









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