With Chaos in Charge, It’s Not a Good Time to Add Workers
A recession looms, yet the Trump administration makes business planning impossible. But if you need to fill in, there are plenty of experienced federal workers available.
EXPERT OPINION BY HOWARD TULLMAN, GENERAL MANAGING PARTNER, G2T3V AND CHICAGO HIGH TECH INVESTORS @HOWARDTULLMAN1
Perhaps it’s politically incorrect to suggest that any new business owner or smart manager would be foolish to be hiring additional people right now or for the foreseeable future. Then again, given the fact that Trump changes his mind as often as he raises tariffs and proffers new illegal executive orders, the idea of any future being even remotely “foreseeable” is probably an oxymoron. You can’t plan or behave rationally in crazy times.
As much as I hate to say it, the expected resurgence of post-pandemic demand, exploding revenues and hyper-growth has pretty much been stifled by the MAGAts’ lunatic actions. Result? The increasing prospects that a recession might be right around the corner.
Amazingly enough, even the Grifter-in-Chief can’t bring himself to lie—that’s a first– and assure the American people that there won’t be a recession. Ask yourself exactly how confident you are at the moment about buying a new car or house or taking the kids on an expensive trip for Spring break? Airlines are already forecasting a poor first quarter.
My basic point is that, with thousands of people being illegally laid off without severance or notice by Trump, his cabinet clowns, and the little Musk monsters, you might think that the proper and patriotic thing to do is for companies to try to hire some of these folks. A sweet sentiment, that, but also a stupid plan for almost every business right now.
Why It’s Tempting to Take On Former Feds.
Entrepreneurs especially have to be very wary of this trap because they’re good people, they’re congenitally optimistic, and they’re always looking for new talent. But not every business needs a branch office, a bench, or a bunch of decent people who will eventually fit in somewhere.
A lot of these newly-unemployed folks – even if they’re 10 or 20 years older than the typical new hires for a startup – look like they’re a great deal in part because they seem willing to work for a fraction of what they used to earn. They are fully equipped with contacts, connections and skill sets that would ordinarily take a newbie years to develop and which even the entrepreneur in charge might actually be lacking. But hiring people in the hope that you’ll need them some day is simply bad business.
When your own business is on the line, it’s not always smart to try to be a good Samaritan while you’re also trying to keep your own head in the game and your own operations in the black. Lateral hires into startups are always the most challenging insertions because there are enormous cross-cultural issues even in the best of times. For example, it can be difficult for many of the folks who were there at the beginning to get over the idea that everything isn’t a fire drill and to understand that patience has a place in business as well.
As you try to add structure, process and order to your shop by adding experienced managers who don’t do everything in a hurry, there’s a serious risk of turning off some of your young superstars who think that “the old guys don’t get it.”
Whatever they may say or even want to believe, the biggest risk in rushing to hire some of these older, more experienced people is that they actually don’t get it – or more properly put – that they aren’t really ready to get on with the next stage of their lives.
But if you find yourself needing new bodies, despite the present macro risks, that doesn’t mean you should just throw the door open to anyone. Before you invite former feds or older corporate types into your shop, here are four questions that you need to get honestly answered.
Are They Done with the Old Days?
Leaving your past behind isn’t easy. Until we lose a job, shut down a business, or move out of town or on to another company, we have no idea of just how much of our identity, persona, status and community were all embedded and intimately tied to the old place. Friends, functions, status and perks, and even classic war stories are all now “old news.” It’s not a simple or short process to get over something that was a big part of your growth and history.
Employees making lateral moves have to figure out how to take all their knowledge and experience forward while leaving the nuts and bolts and the personal details behind. Because no one at the new place cares about them. In addition, denial and deflection and even wishful thinking about returning to the old job stick around for far longer than expected. If your new hires are still stuck or mourning the good old days, they won’t be of any help in moving your business forward.
Do They Get What They’re Getting Into?
I’ve cautioned corporate exiles and wanna-be entrepreneurs for years who were coming from large businesses with assistants, support resources and plenty of time that working in a startup, building a new business, and dealing with the entrepreneurial culture is a completely different world than the one that they’re used to. The transition can be difficult, unsettling and very confusing. Doing your own copying, managing your calendar, and cleaning up after yourself are rude awakenings after years of having others attend to all those tasks. Meetings and memos are also fairly rare.
There’s not a lot of debate and deliberation – planning and budgeting aren’t generally priorities. Very little of the action in the hurry-up world of building a new business is 100% thought out or analyzed in any great detail. Decisions are regularly made in the moment, seat-of-the-pants, and based on best guesses, intuition and the need for speed. Getting things done right is corporate gospel – getting things done quickly is the prime mantra of any good entrepreneur.
Are They Excited About Your Story?
Not every employee needs to be a cheerleader, but now’s not the time to hire critics or folks intent on telling everyone what you’re doing wrong and all about the better way they used to do things at their old employer. The next year or two are going to be tough enough for every business and you need all the wood behind one arrowhead. Everybody rowing in the same direction because only the guy who isn’t rowing has time to rock the boat.
A lot of the best startups succeeded over the years because nobody told them it couldn’t be done, and they didn’t know any better than to just keep trying.
Are They in It for the Long Haul?
After a period of despair, delusion and depression, it will dawn on most of these newly unemployed folks (who most likely were never previously unemployed in their entire careers) that they need to find some work and that there is very little prospect of replacing their prior compensation packages. They also eventually understand that they will be working with and for people who are generally younger and more tech savvy than they are. And so, it’s easy for them to fall into the mindset that things are just temporary and “this too shall pass”.
It’s very similar to the feeling that most of the sentient world has about Trump’s return to office. But it’s bad for your business and not a good use of your time or resources to try to train and incorporate someone who’s always got one foot out the door. This isn’t an easy thing to detect or discuss, but it’s really important to have these conversations early on.
Bottom line: do yourself and your business a big favor and leave the salvation efforts to someone else. Be prudent and patient – there may be a few diamonds in the rough that come to your door – but the odds aren’t in your favor. If you really need to grow right now, do it by advancing and promoting people from within your shop and giving them more authority and responsibility. They’ve been there, they stayed through the toughest times, they know what it takes to succeed – and, most importantly, you know them.
