More than anything, Trump is a gambler and he is taking a high risk approach to re-election. Given public wariness of his handling of the pandemic — and much else — and the recent drop in his favorability rating, he may have no other choice than to stake his political future on his ability to turn the anger and frustration of his credulous audience to his advantage one final time.
Trump Reaches Back Into His Old Bag of Populist
Tricks
The president wants 2020 to
be a replay of 2016, thematically speaking. In that sense, the coronavirus has
changed nothing.
Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from
Washington, D.C. on politics, demographics and inequality.
·
President Trump has chosen
his pandemic re-election strategy. He is set on unifying and reinvigorating the
groups that were crucial to his 2016 victory: racially
resentful whites, evangelical
Christians, gun
activists, anti-vaxxers and wealthy
conservatives.
Jeremy Menchik, a political scientist at Boston University, argues in a lengthy Twitter thread that
these protests have something
for everyone: small-business, concerns for the working class, anti-elitism for
resentful rural whites, fetishism of guns for NRA, dislike of government for
traditional conservatives. It’s a crosscutting issue even amid a pandemic.
Menchik makes the point that anti-quarantine protests
will distract the electorate.
If the election is a fight between Trump vs governors who refuse to open their
economies, Trump doesn’t have to defend his record on Covid-19. He’s an
advocate for liberty!
Studies of the 2009-10 Tea Party movement, Menchik writes,
suggest that “continued protests will boost conservative turnout in Nov 2020.”
The protests
will help frame the 2020
election as a choice between the pro-open economy Trump versus the Washington
insider #BeijingBiden who is complicit in China’s efforts to hurt working class
Americans.
Crucially, Menchik argues,
Continued protests will help
Trump rebuild his coalition of 2016. Scholars of digital social movements
emphasize a logic of connective action not collective action; where
personalized content sharing across media networks enables coalition building.
Casting the
coronavirus epidemic as a wedge issue, Trump is playing both ends against the
middle, in an attempt to veil his own inconsistencies. Following up on this
idea, Noah
Rothman, associate editor of Commentary, asked on April 20: “Can
Trump Be All Things to All People?”
presides over an
administration that has taken a firm stance in favor of phased closures and
reduced social interaction even as he insists that the Spartan conditions into
which Americans have been consigned are intolerable. Trump has now staked out a
position in which he can be all things to at least a majority of voters:
cautious to a point, empathetic to another; responsible for the minimum safety
standards and contemptuous of any state-level guidance that may come to be
viewed as excessive in hindsight.
The calculation underlying Trump’s “liberate”
crusade was revealed in a comment on the Facebook page of Pennsylvanians Against
Excessive Quarantine:
The eastern border, Philly,
and the western border Pittsburgh, is what is causing the state to stay shut
down. What about the rest of us??
In other words, Trump
and his followers want to place the onus for the social and economic restraints
that are still in effect in much of the country on cities, many of them heavily
black, where the coronavirus has been most destructive.
“We’re not New York. Their problems are not
our problems.”
Trump continues on a
well-trodden path as he promotes the corona-liberation movement — stigmatizing
inner-city dwellers, scapegoating “foreigners” and blaming the Covid-19
pandemic on China. In a recent email to supporters,
his campaign declared: “America is under attack — not just by an invisible
virus, but by the Chinese.”
is central to his strategic
racism. Trump uses this wedge to solidify and turn out his base and persuade
white, blue collar voters. Trump believes strategic racism worked for him in
2016 so why not 2020?
Most recently, Trump
has made use of the pandemic to try to align himself with American workers who
see their jobs as threatened by competition from immigrants.
Steve Schmidt — a former Republican consultant and prominent Never Trumper who served as a senior adviser to John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid — described the shape he saw Trump’s 2020 re-election drive taking. As the “administration continues to lie, fumble and flounder,” Schmidt wrote in an April 17 Twitter thread,
get ready for the noxious
blend of Confederate flags, semiautomatic weaponry, conspiracy theorists,
political cultists, extremists and nut jobs coming to a state Capitol near you.
The 2020 incarnation of the Tea Party, Schmidt continued,
will be stoked by Trump every
step of the way as they help make the air fertile for his blame gaming,
scapegoating, evasions of responsibility, populist fulminations and nationalist
incitements. They will be on TV every night storming the battered ramparts of
our politics and civics.
Thomas
M. Nichols — a professor at the Naval War College who abandoned the
Republican Party in 2018 — succinctly described on Twitter
on April 19 how Trump’s alignment with anti-shutdown forces
works:
This is perfect for the Angry
White Trumper: People in blue states, guided by the elites and know-it-alls
they hate, stealing a march on them by being better and more civic minded
citizens than they are. So now it’s ‘fighting tyranny,’ because they’ve got
nothing else.
The key battleground
states in the Midwest are rich soil for the tactics outlined by Lake, Schmidt
and Nichols.
The unexpected scale of the
pandemic in Detroit and Chicago,
and its pronounced impact on African-American
communities in cities across the Midwest, lays bare a longstanding
reality: The older industrial cities of the Midwest are home to America’s
sharpest Black-white divides.
More specifically, Austin documents the disproportionate
percentage of urban African-Americans suffering from the pandemic:
In Milwaukee
County, black residents account for 27 percent of the local
population, but 51 percent of confirmed Covid-19 cases and 57 percent of
Covid-19 deaths.
The same pattern emerges in Illinois and Michigan, Austin
writes:
In the city
of Chicago and suburban Cook County, Ill., the rate of Covid-19 cases per
100,000 people is nearly 470 for Black residents — more than twice that for
white and Latino or Hispanic residents. Covid-19 death rates for Chicago’s
Black residents are more than four times as high as for other race groups. In
the city
of Detroit, Black residents account for 79 percent of the local
population, but 88 percent of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths.
In fact, Hispanics are also disproportionately stricken by
Covid-19. USA
Today reports, for example, that
In New York, a grim tally
tells the tale: Latinos make up 29 percent of the population but are 39 percent
of those who have succumbed to Covid-19.
The racial divisions in the Midwest, Austin writes, were
crucial to the outcome of the 2016 election:
Racially divided regions such
as Detroit, Cleveland, and Milwaukee fed the rise of Donald Trump, with his
scapegoating of people of color and nostalgic appeals to white working-class
voters yearning for a return to the “good old days.”
Bringing the issue back to the present election, Austin
pointed out:
In our state capital of
Lansing, an April 15 rally ostensibly protesting social distancing measures was
notable for its participants’ use of Trump
and Confederate iconography.
The pandemic has, in turn, inspired a renewed Christian right
critique of America’s cities. Erick-Woods Erickson,
the conservative evangelical American blogger and radio host, posted on his
website “A
Theology of Cities and The Pandemic” on April 19. It is a diatribe
against urban America:
It is no coincidence in
scripture that the first city came from Cain, filled with the inbred product of
his and his sisters’ relations. Time and time again, God’s people are poorer
and in less urban areas. Bad things happen everywhere, but a lot of bad things
are magnified in urban areas. Jesus died at the hands of an urban mob. Babel’s
residents decided they could rival God.
Now, however, the
unbelievers whom Erickson contends populate American cities are getting their
comeuppance: “Those who’ve had a good life now outside the presence of God will
find nothing good while those who believe will live in splendor.”
I have never seen so many
American flags at a rally as I have at these rallies. These people love our
country. They want to get back to work.
I asked Ashley
Jardina, a political scientist at Duke and author of the book “White
Identity Politics,” about the likelihood of Trump succeeding in
capitalizing on the differing percentages of whites and African-Americans
suffering from the virus. She replied:
It does not surprise me that
Trump tries to shift blame for the pandemic onto communities of color in urban
areas. The urban-rural divide is also a racial one, and many of Trump’s core
supporters are white people from rural areas that have thus far been somewhat
insulated from the disease but not from the economic fallout.
In addition, Jardina continued, it is
unsurprising that most of the
people protesting the stay-at-home orders appear to be white. The depressing
reality, however, is that it’s likely to be Black and Latino Americans who
suffer the most economically from the pandemic. Black unemployment is already
at least twice as high as white unemployment, and that gap is likely to grow.
Trump is egging on lockdown protesters in order to generate
enthusiasm and drive turnout on Election Day, but Ron Brownstein, writing
in The Atlantic, warns that this gambit could backfire.
The Coronavirus pandemic
appears destined to widen the political divide between the nation’s big cities
and the smaller places beyond them. And that could narrow Donald Trump’s possible
pathways to re-election.
The concentration of the virus in cities, Brownstein writes,
threatens to exacerbate one
of Trump’s most conspicuous political vulnerabilities: his historical weakness
in big metropolitan areas that are full of the minority and white-collar white
voters most skeptical of him.
Brownstein cites data
illustrating the urban- rural split: “The counties in New York State that fall
under the largest metro category — New York City and its environs — have 12,454
cases per million residents.” That compares with 915 per million in the
nonmetro counties. In Michigan, “the caseload drops from 4,787 per million
residents in the largest counties” to “just 346 in the nonmetro counties.”
Will
Bunch, a columnist for The Philadelphia Inquirer, is more outspoken
in his critique of Trump and the coronavirus liberation movement, arguing that
the protesters are unknowingly fronting for the wealthiest Americans:
Right-wing
special interests, like the billionaire family of Education
Secretary Betsy DeVos, are terrified that the 22 million unemployed will demand
a social welfare state.
Their goal? To “shift
blame away from Trump’s
multiple failures on the coronavirus and instead onto
public-health-minded governors.”
On April 19, Isaac Stanley-Becker and Tony Romm of The
Washington Post reported that
a trio of far-right, pro-gun
provocateurs is behind some of the largest Facebook groups calling for
anti-quarantine protests around the country.” Groups in Wisconsin, Ohio,
Pennsylvania and New York appear to be the creations of three brothers, Ben,
Christopher and Aaron Dorr, all of whom are farther to the right on Second
Amendment issues than the National Rifle Association.
These groups have
been expanding rapidly, reaching more than 200,000 members as of April 19, according
to the Post. Each Dorr group contains the phrase “Against Excessive Quarantine”
in its name, as in “Wisconsinites Against Excessive Quarantine.”
Bunch makes the case that lockdown protests are “fake"
grass roots — AstroTurf — designed to look real but, in fact, synthetic.
William McGurn, a Wall Street Journal columnist, disagrees,
writing on April 20:
The protesters are for the
most part simply struggling Americans who have concluded that — at least for
them — the cure is turning out to be worse than the disease.
While “the protests
remain relatively small,” McGurn continued, they “do expose the elite
disconnect with ordinary America.”
Nearly six in 10 in the
survey said they were concerned that the country would move too fast to loosen
restrictions aimed at slowing the outbreak, compared with about three in 10 who
said the greater worry was the economic impact of waiting too long.
Trump’s credibility as a national leader during the pandemic
appears to be eroding. A Reuters/Ipsos
survey released April 21 found that
When asked specifically about
Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, 44 percent approved and 52 percent
disapproved, which is an 8-point drop in net approval since last week and a
13-point drop from last month.
These poll results lend support to the view of Leonie Huddy, a political scientist at Stonybrook
University, who argued in an email that Trump faces the cold reality of a
health care crisis — and that voters may not give him as much leeway as in the
past:
This may be one instance in
which reality and personal experience stand up to political bluster and
misstatements. Undoubtedly, many Trump supporters will stick with him and
regard the public health response to the Covid-19 pandemic as a costly
overreaction. But there will also be political moderates and independents who
regard the administration and president as increasingly incompetent in a domain
in which it really matters.
The great unknown is
whether there will be a resurgence of the coronavirus in those areas of the
country that are now starting to reopen businesses and other public venues,
often with minimal or no social distancing.