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What Will the End of the Era of Trump Feel Like? It Could be Just Days or Weeks Away
I can’t think of a
time that I did not find Donald Trump repulsive. I’ve been aware of him
for nearly half a century. He was always slimy. Initially, he was just an
example of the sleazy underbelly of New York society, the loud, cheesy,
strivers who had never read a book, never made a contribution to society. If
he didn’t have bad taste, he would have no taste at all. When he became a
“television star” with “The Apprentice,” it was hard for me to fathom. Who
could watch him? Who could bear to spend time with him? Who would invite him
into their living room every week? His puffed business persona was clearly a
lie. His bankruptcies were well known. His vibe was more than a little
criminal. You could tell that the one prominent New Yorker he most wanted to
be was Mob Boss John Gotti. Same sartorial style. Same sociopathic character. So, when he announced
in 2015 that he was going to run for president, I was one of those who
thought of it as a sick joke, an ego spasm that would soon lead to
humiliation and for him to crawl back under the rock from which he came (as
my Mom would say.) Somehow, of course, he
was vastly more successful as a candidate than I had anticipated. And those
running against him in the GOP were vastly more inept. One by one he shunted
them aside. With a knack for the media of the day, for generating headlines,
for making the dull business of politics into the kind of reality show that
was a dominant media form at the time, he actually became the Republican
candidate. (It is telling that in the 80s, the GOP won by running a movie
star, a man who could play president in a kind of cinematic way and that
while Trump was very different from Reagan, they repeated the trick in 2016
by picking the kind of star of the kind of medium that commanded the
attention of Americans for whom narratives took too long and were too intellectually
demanding. We had become a country demanding constant emotional stimulus in
much the same way as a lab monkey will keep hitting the lever in his cage to
get as many treats as he can. This was a form of communication that connected
more with the emotional center of the brain, the amygdala, with our lizard
brain, rather than the cerebral cortex.) It was also clear
however, as Trump ran for president in 2015 and 2016 that he was a profoundly
dangerous man. He had no public service experience. The idea that he was a
successful businessman was a complete fraud. He had failed in some
businesses, like casinos, in which it is impossible to fail. Many of his
Trump brands collapsed because they were so clearly fraudulent and tacky. He
had no policies to speak of and the instincts of a criminal. And gradually,
as he campaigned it became clear he possessed some very dangerous ideas about
America’s role in the world, about Russia, about the nature and use of our
military, about the role of truth and character in public life, about the
economy, about democracy. It was clear from the start that he was a man who
would say anything to get what he wanted and embrace anyone who would help
him get it. (Though he would very likely discard them when he had no further
use for them.) Thus, at that point,
almost a decade ago, I resolved to do whatever I could to oppose his
candidacy for the presidency. I was running “Foreign Policy” magazine at the
time and we decided to break with tradition to run an editorial stating what
a threat he was and endorsing Hillary Clinton. I wrote a series of articles
about why I thought he posed a threat and these continued throughout his
presidency. Indeed, there was always something to write about…and something
to fear…when it came to Trump. As president, creating
chaos, violating norms, breaking laws, damaging the country in countless
ways, seeking powers he did not have and later plotting to ignore the will of
the American people, it was only natural he dominated the headlines. Somewhat
surprisingly, despite two impeachments and indictments and several
convictions for a wide variety of crimes (perpetrated by him or his
companies), despite a failed coup attempt that marked the first time in our
country’s history we did not have a peaceful transfer of presidential power,
Trump remained politically relevant even while out of office. Should he have
been convicted for the crimes he committed and taken out of circulation?
Absolutely yes. But those responsible for our justice system did not have any
sense of urgency about convicting him (or for that matter any of the others
who were responsible for the planning and top level leadership of the coup
attempt). So he remained a viable candidate for reelection.
And so it is to this
day. For almost an entire decade Donald Trump has dominated US politics as no
other figure and throughout that time I have been one of the many who have
sought to warn of the threat he posed and to call out his abuses, crimes,
errors, ignorance, misjudgment, and general odiousness. I’m not saying I
played any special role. There have been thousands upon thousands of us who
have similarly been vocal parts of the opposition to Trump backed by millions
upon millions who opposed him without taking to a media platform to do so.
(Remember, Trump has never won a popular election. The majority of the
American people have always opposed him.) Now, we are five days
away from another election. He could, in what would be a calamity for the
nation and a grotesque failure of our democracy, win reelection or otherwise
engineer it so he was once again awarded the keys to the White House. Or, alternatively, as
I believe will happen, he could lose. Some think that if he
lost, he would remain a candidate and run again, at age 82, in 2028. I do
not. He has barely tottered his way through this election. Marble after
marble of his already limited supply of marbles have popped out his ear of
gone into this handkerchief each time he sneezed. He can barely get around.
He can’t keep a campaign schedule. He almost wiped out while trying to get
into a garbage truck. No, if Trump loses,
while MAGA may carry on (and some movement like MAGA will be a part of our
politics for a long while as the country adapts to inevitable demographic
shifts and progress that has some Americans feeling both angry and insecure),
his political career will effectively be over. And with nothing in it for
him, he will almost surely leave politics behind. We won’t know that is
happening for sure on the evening of November 5. He will lie and fight about
the results of the election for as long as he can if Vice President Harris
wins. But at some point, it seems likely to me, in the next few days or
weeks, the era of Donald Trump will be over in American politics. This will be a blow
not only to Trump but also for the industries that has sprung up around
him—notably the media companies that are heavily focused on his every outrage
or amplifying his message to his followers—will disappear. There will still
be bad people in politics and there will be a battle succeed him in leading
the 30 or 40 percent of Americans who followed him through thick and thin,
despite his crimes, despite his propensity for hate, despite everything. But
if he loses by enough even they may play a diminished role as some group
seeks to reestablish a saner Republican Party, realizing what a political
loser MAGA has actually been. But I’ve been
wondering what the end of the Trump Era, one of the ugliest in American
political history, will feel like. What it will like to wake up and not
expect some outrage from him or some new and grave threat associated with his
unique combination of endless ambition and zero values. What a world in which
we can devote our attention to President Harris’ “to do list” rather than
Trump’s “enemies list.” It will be a big
change for many of us. It will mark the end of not just a chapter in the life
of the country but in our own careers. It will be kind of a big deal. And I
wonder how it will feel. And, having given it
some thought these past few days and weeks and months and well, frankly
years, I want to tell you that I expect it to feel…absolutely great. I can’t wait. |
