What if Trump Tries to Steal the Election Again?
The excitement around the Harris-Walz ticket has given Democrats renewed hope that they can win in November. With that growing hope has come concern, though. What if Trump and his party try to steal the election again? What if they’ve learned enough from their failed effort in 2020 to run a more sophisticated operation in 2024? This is Donald Trump, who consistently maintains in advance of any election that if he loses, it’s been stolen from him. History is full of failed coups that were preludes to successful ones.
Past experience teaches anyone who isn’t deliberately trying to ignore it that Trump will not go quietly into the night if he loses in 2024. He has too much at stake—like staying out of prison.
In a sense, overturning this election is a more difficult task for Trump. He no longer has the power of the presidency to abuse, no corrupt attorney general to advance his narrative. But if he loses the election he's going to face accountability at the hands of judges and juries in at least four different courtrooms. That just about guarantees that he will do anything to try and avoid a loss. It means Americans who care about the future of our country need to do everything they can to ensure people turn out to vote against him in such overwhelming numbers that there won’t be any room for Trump to try and claim fraud.
But there are clear signs Trump is preparing to do just that. For instance, in Georgia, where the stories emerging about the State Elections Board are outrageous. It started when the group, which is appointed, not elected, began putting antidemocratic measures in place for the upcoming election. It’s widely believed Georgia will be a key battleground state.
As Lauren Groh-Wargo, the CEO of Fair Fight, a Georgia-based pro-voting organization explained, “earlier this year, the GOP-controlled state Legislature appointed two new members to the five-person panel, transforming it into a Trump-aligned government body. Three of the board’s five members have expressed doubts that President Joe Biden won the state in the 2020 election. The board’s meetings have become a haven for false election conspiracy theories, many based on Trump’s 2020 election lies.” The board has adopted rules in the last few weeks that would let local officials stop vote counts and delay or refuse to certify results if they believe there are any “irregularities.” The changes would increase the workload of already overburdened (and underprotected—think Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss) election workers, which could also lead to delays in vote counting and certification.
Changes like this, in jurisdictions with a history of discrimination, used to require either preclearance from the Justice Department or prior approval from a court. But ever since the Supreme Court gutted Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act in Shelby County v. Holder, states like Georgia have been free to impose measures like this.
All that stands in their way are the smart and committed lawyers who continue to find ways to prevent Americans from being denied the right to vote.
This type of effort to delay or prevent certification of the results in the presidential election isn’t limited to Georgia though. As Groh-Wargo explains, “Trump’s 2020 election interference playbook hasn’t changed, but the MAGA operation has become more sophisticated. Now, there are election deniers holding local elections positions in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania (in addition to Georgia). GOP officials have resisted certifying results in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.”
Joanna Lydgate (our guest for “Five Questions with” back in June) is the CEO at States United, one of the groups committed to a fair election. Along with other organizations that work to support democracy, her work is focused on building lessons learned and successes following the midterm elections, for instance, taking county officials to court if they refuse to certify election results. It's important to understand that certifying election results isn’t discretionary. These officials are directed to certify votes once they are counted, just like Mike Pence was obligated to certify the vote on January 6. The law is clear.
That means the people pushing these schemes are rogue actors—as much a part of the Big Lie as Trump was following the 2020 election. Secretaries of State and Attorneys General across the states will be prepared to ensure the certifying officials do their jobs, even if that means going to court. Despite the fact that the courts held firm in 2020, refusing to let Trump steal the election, there are concerns this go round, especially after the Supreme Court’s decision in the immunity case. But here, where the law is unambiguous about the duty to certify election results after a vote count, cases that will mostly go to state courts, there is little room to wobble. Like they were in 2017 where Trump declared a Muslim ban, and again in 2020 after the election, lawyers are prepared to be the heroes.
Wendy Weiser who directs the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center explains it clearly. She told me that these plans to hold up election certification are clearly unlawful. So it’s a narrative fight, a fight for the truth. People need to understand that there aren’t legitimate loopholes that would allow Donald Trump to steal the election. “If someone tells you, ‘here’s a trick you can use to steal an election’, be skeptical. We have laws that protect voting rights. We have laws that protect due process…we have state laws that make certification a mandatory nondiscretionary duty.” That’s a solid legal explanation for why we really can have confidence in the courts. We aren’t plowing new ground here like the Supreme Court did in the immunity case. These are long-established state rules for how election votes are finalized.
Georgia’s courts, by the way, have consistently ruled that certification of votes is “ministerial”—something officials must do once the counts are complete. The Georgia Supreme Court has said that election officials responsibility in this regard is to disclose the official election returns prepared by the election managers to the public.
Will we face challenges this election cycle? Yes, of course we will. But it’s critical to know this new threat to elections that is surfacing, the idea that pro-Trump officials can just refuse to certify them, is clearly illegitimate. There is no hint of lawfulness here. Trump will try to muddy the waters and people who are loyal to him, not the Constitution, may try to claim election results aren’t clear. In some places, lawyers may have to go to court to force them to certify elections. They will win.
Knowing this is likely coming underscores how important turnout is in this election. Trump needs to be defeated by such overwhelming numbers of votes that it’s virtually impossible to claim fraud. We need to make sure it’s not close; that there is no vestige of legitimacy to his efforts to interfere with the election. As Americans, we are entitled to vote and to pick our own leaders. Increasingly, even those who have previously supported Trump are turning away. Like these folks in Vestavia, Alabama, part of the metro Birmingham, and a solidly Republican area.
The point is this: this talk of failure to certify elections is frightening. We saw what Trump tried to do in 2020. We know he will try to do it again. But don’t let the fear take hold. Legally, he doesn’t have a legitimate move to make. What he’s trying to do is similar to the kind of voter suppression where voters are told their votes won’t matter so they shouldn’t bother to make the effort. He’s trying to win a narrative war. Here, Trump wants to make his successful cheating seem so inevitable that people will accept it as a fait accompli. He’s gotten away with that type of strategy so often in the past. But he’s not going to here. We are not going to let him do that when democracy is at stake.
