Rachel Maddow: What Worries Me Most
About Election Night
Aug. 19, 2024, 5:02 a.m. ET
By Rachel Maddow
Ms. Maddow is the host of “The Rachel
Maddow Show” on MSNBC and the MSNBC podcast “Rachel Maddow Presents: Ultra.”
On
Dec. 1, 1960, the far-right preacher and racist demagogue Gerald L.K. Smith
sent out a fund-raising appeal, headlined with a shocking claim in red type
across the top: “HOLD YOUR BREATH: KENNEDY MAY HAVE LOST.”
The
1960 election had indeed been close, but the Democrat, John F. Kennedy, had
prevailed, and his Republican opponent, Richard M. Nixon, had congratulated
Kennedy on election night, over shouted protests from his supporters.
Three
weeks later, Smith, the leader of what he called the Christian Nationalist
Crusade, was telling his followers it was possible to reverse that result.
If Smith’s followers would only send him money, he would
continue what he called his “subtle campaign of pressure” to persuade governors
in states won by Kennedy that they should refuse to send Kennedy electors to
Washington for the Electoral College count.
“This,”
Smith promised, “could turn out to be the most shocking and sensational
Electoral College vote in history.”
It
was not. There were no shenanigans in the Electoral College count. Kennedy
received 303 votes to Nixon’s 219, and the transition of power proceeded
peacefully.
Today,
it may be worth remembering Smith’s nut-ball campaign to overturn the 1960
election if only to see how far we’ve sunk. You used to have to get out into
the far-flung wilds of American political life before you’d find people trying
to persuade state or local officials to monkey-wrench the Electoral College by refusing to send their states’ real
results to Washington for the Electoral College count. Not anymore.
Since
Donald Trump and Ronna McDaniel, the then-chair of the Republican National
Committee, phoned local officials in
Michigan in November 2020 to encourage them not to certify vote totals,
Republicans have quietly seeded county and state election boards with eager
allies. Election boards across the country now include Republican officials who
have not only propounded Mr. Trump’s lies about the last presidential election
being “stolen,” they have tested how far they can go in denying the
certification of the vote.
Republicans tried this ploy more than two dozen times in at
least eight states since 2020. Two refusenik Republican election board members
were indicted in Cochise County, Ariz. That case is pending. Two others were
removed from their positions in Surry County, N.C. In New Mexico, Pennsylvania
and Nevada, Republican officials who delayed or refused to certify the votes
ultimately relented under legal pressure.
But
in Georgia, the State Election Board approved a rule this month that gives election
officials in each of the state’s 159 counties the option to delay or refuse
certification in order to make a “reasonable inquiry” into the results. What
counts as a “reasonable inquiry?” The new rule does not say.
Because
Georgia law holds that election boards “shall” certify results within a week of
the election, this rule almost certainly will face legal challenges. But in a
state where Republicans have delayed or refused certification at least seven times since
2020 — more than in any other state — the rule injects a new layer of murk into
the legal waters less than 100 days before the election.
On
Monday, the board is expected to consider yet another revision to the rules
that would afford members of county election boards an additional option for
delaying or refusing certification. The rule would allow local board members to
demand “all election-related documentation” before certifying the results.
Imagine
an election night this November in which the two parties are trading
swing-state victories. The Democrats capture Nevada, while the Republicans take
Arizona. The Republicans win the big prize of Pennsylvania, while the Democrats
top them in Wisconsin and Michigan. The nation is waiting on Georgia. If
Georgia goes red, it’s President Trump; if Georgia goes blue, it’s President
Harris.
Then, local news headlines start to circulate. There are
reports of unspecified “problems” in the vote in Fulton County. And in Gwinnett
County. And in DeKalb, Coffee and Spalding Counties. Republican officials are
refusing to certify the results in their counties. They say they are making
“reasonable inquiries.”
As
legal challenges wend through the courts, a wave of disinformation, confusion
and propaganda swells, fueled by unproven claims that something is amiss in
these Georgia counties, and also by similar noise — and possibly also
certification refusals — in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada.
(All have seen local
Republicans try the certification refusal ruse since 2020.)
Under
recently revised federal law, each state has until Dec. 11 to send official,
certified state results to Washington for the Electoral College count. But if a
state doesn’t meet that deadline, then what?
The
point of these certification refusals may not be to falsify or flip a result,
but simply to prevent the emergence of one. If one or more states fail to
produce official results, blocking any candidate from reaching 270 electoral
votes, the 12th Amendment prescribes Gerald L.K. Smith’s dream scenario: a vote
in the newly elected House of Representatives to determine the presidency. Each
state delegation would get one vote; today, Republicans control 26 state
delegations; Democrats control 22; and two are evenly divided.
Our
democratic system is not invincible, but it is strong. Certification of
election results is a ministerial responsibility that is not discretionary.
Legitimate election challenges are handled with recounts and litigation, not by
individual election board members. There is no loophole that allows bad-faith
officials to so flummox the electoral system that they take the choice of the
next president away from the American people.
But in the past three and a half years, the ad hoc
certification ploys that failed to flip the last presidential election to
Mr. Trump have been professionalized and systematized by Republican officials
and their allies. A recent report in The Times quoted an official with the conservative Heritage
Foundation saying that “the conditions” in the country are now such that “most
reasonable policymakers and officials cannot in good conscience certify an
election.” Michael Whatley, the chairman of the Republican National Committee,
has declined to answer when asked if the party intends to try to block vote
certifications.
A contrivance like this is as nutty
today as it was when Gerald L.K. Smith tried to make a version of it seem
plausible in 1960. But this year, the firepower being brought to bear on the
issue by the Republican Party is much more than a “subtle campaign of pressure”
from a direct-mail grifter.
Opponents no doubt will fight any
certification denials in the courts. Those efforts are important, and every
state should be shoring up its own legal and electoral system now to prepare
for, deter and defend against any effort to sabotage certification. But
stopping such subterfuge also depends on an informed public that refuses to let
false narratives take hold.
A cleareyed look at Republicans’
handling of the administration of elections since Mr. Trump’s effort to
overthrow the last election should prepare us: Refusals to certify results
should not necessarily be seen as indicating real electoral problems; they are
more likely part of a bad-faith strategy to mess with the democratic process.
Now is the time to get to know your
local election board, especially if you live in a place where election
denialism has taken hold, and where certification refusals may be coming.
Public awareness and vigilance can make a difference. No one should be surprised
when certification refusals happen or when they are then exploited to try to
maximize chaos and upset.
After all, the
Republican nominee this year is no Richard Nixon.