Trump’s Stunning Guilty Verdict Shatters His Aura of
Invincibility
His conviction on 34 felony counts is powerful new information, and we
should hold institutional Democrats responsible if they don’t use it—ruthlessly
and effectively.
SETH WENIG/POOL/GETTY IMAGES
Former President Donald Trump leaves
Manhattan Criminal Court after being found guilty in his hush-money trial on
May 30.
One of the most bizarre things about the Donald Trump era has been the
persistence of his aura of invincibility. Trump, who never reads books but
somehow harbors deep knowledge of what history tells us about how autocrats
succeed, cultivates this aura relentlessly. The nonstop lying about his poll
strength, the absolute refusal to concede the slightest error in any situation,
the endlessly hallucinogenic fabrications about his crowd sizes—all of it flows
from his seemingly instinctual sense that conceding any hint of weakness must
be resisted at all costs, lest it unleash forces that shatter him entirely.
The guilty verdict that a Manhattan jury handed to Trump in his
hush-money trial—he was convicted on all 34 felony counts—is surely such a powerful
spectacle in part because it upends that dynamic. Only hours ago, it was
possible to still see Trump as a seemingly untouchable figure on the verge of
defying us all again. An entire political party had lined up behind him to cast the proceedings as
illegitimate. No matter how sleazy, grotesque, and damning the
revelations, his grip on the GOP seemed to only grow stronger. His poll numbers
refused to budge. He was violating his gag order with impunity, insulting the judge and his family, hypnotizing millions
of rank-and-file Republicans into seeing him as a victim of overzealous law
enforcement, and generally unfurling a big, fat middle finger at the justice
system and at the rule of law itself.
He was getting away with all of it. Again.
Until he didn’t.
The force of this truth should inform how Democrats proceed now.
Democratic operatives sometimes say there’s no sense in talking about Trump’s
criminal trials, because his “negatives” are “baked in,” as the grating
consultant-speak has it. Indeed, according to a source familiar with the
situation, the Biden campaign has no plans for any paid ads on the verdict. The campaign did put out a powerful statement about the verdict, and
it’s somewhat understandable that Biden himself is cautious about commenting on
Trump’s legal travails, given that his own Justice Department is prosecuting
Trump.
But that can’t set the tone for the whole party. Other Democratic groups
and elected officials must do all they can to make sure that voters know about
this conviction, and, importantly, that Republican lawmakers—who are running
for reelection as we speak—lined up like little robots to savage the justice
system, all to put Trump above accountability and the law.
After all, Republicans are in a terrible trap. Look what happened when
Larry Hogan—who is running for Senate in deep blue Maryland—dared to say the
absolute minimum of what’s responsible here, that the system should be
respected:
What that really shows is how devastating it would be for Trump if more
Republicans follow suit. Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign manager, knows
perfectly well that nothing about any of this is “baked in.” In a way, the
baked-in idea is just another version of the invincibility thesis. And it’s
nonsense: A guilty verdict is powerful new information—the fact that one of the
major party nominees is a convicted felon is an unprecedented and deeply
jarring situation. We should hold institutional Democrats responsible if they
don’t use it, and use it
ruthlessly and effectively.
True, the hush-money affair is less serious than Trump’s alleged crimes
related to the insurrection and the theft of national security documents. But
it shouldn’t be hard to make the case that an extremely serious offense lurks
beneath the tabloid trash: Trump committed extensive fraud to
deceive the American people about a tawdry affair and cheat his way into the
most powerful position in the world, one he never should have been granted in
the first place. The GOP presidential nominee is now a convicted criminal. As
Dan Pfeiffer put it, Democrats
should “call Trump a convicted felon at every opportunity.”
The larger story is also a powerful one. The system sought to hold
Trump accountable despite a roar of second-guessing—and in the face of
incredible strains inflicted on it by Trump and his GOP enablers and media
propagandists, who make up an extraordinarily powerful elite cadre. The system
held. That reflects positively on our country. There is time for the Biden
campaign to figure out how to tell that story as well.
No question, Trump could still defy political and legal gravity in plenty
of ways. Though some polls suggest Trump will pay a political price for his
conviction, it’s anyone’s guess whether voters will make good on that, and a
lot rides on whether Democrats succeed in driving it all home. Beyond that,
Judge Aileen Cannon seems to have delayed Trump’s trial for theft of state
secrets. The Supreme Court could still stall Trump’s insurrection-related trial
until after the election. But I suspect that has now become somewhat less
likely: Now that Trump has been branded a felon, dubiously helping Trump delay
justice will become harder to justify, and will come at a greater political and
institutional price.
Trump’s aura of invincibility has never been earned. He was impeached
more times than any other president in U.S. history. He presided over the worst
string of GOP electoral losses in many decades. He lost reelection after only a
single term, which he won only after losing the popular vote. He has never once
commanded majority support in this country. He had already been losing in court
already—he’s been nailed for sexually assaulting E. Jean Carroll, and his company was found to have systematically lied about its worth—even
though he enjoys the priciest legal representation, funded partly by donor money that he fleeced from his own party, another privilege that pretty
much no other defendant has enjoyed, ever.
And now, after Trump and his elite enablers attempted mightily to wreck
the whole system to keep him beyond accountability at all costs—an effort that
for a time looked like it just might succeed—a jury of ordinary Americans
heroically stood up and said: No.