Is
It Too Late to Save Chicago From Progressive Misrule?
The city has gone
downhill fast but it isn’t clear voters are ready to turn the page on Lori
Lightfoot.
By Collin Levy
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Feb.
10, 2023 1:59 pm ET
The
Windy City is in unusually bad shape. Crime is up but the statistics don’t
capture Chicagoans’ true concern about the collapse of public order. Taxes are
high, pensions are underfunded, businesses are leaving, and unions are gaining
unprecedented power in a city they already dominate. So it’s hardly a surprise
that the mayor’s race has become a free-for-all.
Nine
candidates, including incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot, are trying to
distinguish themselves on the big issues of troubled schools, city finances and
law enforcement. Their platforms are a progressive punchbowl. One candidate
wants a tax on the suburbs; another proposes a “public bank.” But the issue
that really matters is crime. Voters want to know: Is anyone here going to save
the city from its slow-motion demise?
Three
candidates—Ms. Lightfoot, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas,
and U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia—are currently in a dead heat for the lead,
followed by Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson,
businessman Willie Wilson, Alderman Sophia King and community
activist Ja’Mal Green. The slate will face off in a primary on Feb. 28. If
no candidate wins a majority, the top two will compete in a runoff on April 4.
The primary is technically nonpartisan, but in Chicago that doesn’t matter. All
nine candidates are Democrats.
Ms.
Lightfoot’s tenure has been marked by Covid and crime. Her combative
personality was appealing when she was an outsider, but it has left her this
time without a natural constituency. Her current approval rating is 22% among
likely voters, and 71% think the city is on the wrong track, according to a
WBEZ poll. In 2019 she won every ward in the city.
Those
bleak numbers have created an opening for Mr. Vallas, a candidate whose
positions on public order and city finances are a throwback to an earlier, more
practical era of Chicago Democratic politics. His reputation as a budget guy
and turnaround specialist with policy expertise, derived from stints running
large school districts in Chicago, Philadelphia and the Recovery School
District of Louisiana, earned him the endorsement of the Chicago Tribune, which
called him smart and “unapologetically wonkish.”
Mr.
Vallas’s rise in the polls to around 18% is reflected in the missiles now
coming his way. Ms. Lightfoot says he isn’t speaking up enough on abortion
(he’s pro-choice). Mr. Garcia says he is a conservative “wolf in sheep’s
clothing.” But nothing seems to stick. Since Jan. 1, Mr. Vallas has raised $2.4
million, compared with $829,000 for Mr. Garcia, $751,000 for Mr. Johnson and
$739,000 for Ms. Lightfoot, according to political consultant Frank
Calabrese.
Why?
Residents are less preoccupied with the usual ideological flashpoints than they
are with the sense that crime is spiraling out of control. Carjackings and
retail theft are common, lotion is locked up at Walgreens and
some neighborhoods have hired private security patrols. At the end of 2022,
Michigan Ave., Chicago’s high-end shopping strip, had retail vacancies around
30%, says Cushman & Wakefield.
Ms.
Lightfoot’s approach has been more defensive than constructive. In summer 2022,
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski gave a speech affirming his
company’s commitment to Chicago but noting that crime in the city is a “crisis”
and high taxes are driving out other major companies like Boeing, Caterpillar and
hedge fund Citadel. It was a cry for help, but Ms. Lightfoot kicked sand in Mr.
Kempczinski’s face, telling him to “educate himself” before he speaks.
In
February she reached out to the business community, telling them they should
“champion” the city and that she is open to more cooperation. That would make
her a better second-term mayor, but it sounds like an offer of conciliation out
of desperation. Who knows if she means it?
Mr.
Vallas pitches himself as the law-and-order candidate with the slogan that
“public safety is a human right.” He has done pro-bono work on contract talks
for the Fraternal Order of Police and has the endorsement of the Chicago Police
Union. Voters may wager he has a better shot at getting the city back on track
than Ms. Lightfoot, who cut the police budget in 2020. Politically, she owns
the crime wave.
The
other big issue is the city’s public schools. The teachers unions, which supported
Mr. Garcia in 2015, have this time put their money behind Mr. Johnson, a former
teacher. Since joining the race in October, around 97% of Mr. Johnson’s roughly
$2.4 million in contributions have come from the American Federation of
Teachers (of which the Chicago Teachers Union is Local 1) and the Service
Employees International Union.
If
he doesn’t make it to the runoff, and Mr. Garcia does, count on the CTU support
flowing Mr. Garcia’s way. The teachers’ contract is up for renegotiation in
2024, so this year’s campaign money is meant to ensure they will be negotiating
with a friendly mayor. A new contract could set conditions for five years or
even longer.
The
most under-discussed issue of the race is the city’s finances and public
pensions, which are among the worst funded in the nation, according to the
Illinois Policy Institute. But fixing that will require great relations with
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and a first-rate ground game in
Springfield. Ms. Lightfoot has neither.
Have
Chicagoans had enough of progressive misrule? Might they finally turn to a
centrist Democrat to put an end to the crime and disorder that is ruining civic
life? Over the years, blue cities like Seattle, Los Angeles and New York have
episodically swung to the center. But only when things got so bad that
progressivism’s bold promises and good intentions were no longer believable.
A
new Lightfoot campaign ad includes footage from a 2009 interview with Mr.
Vallas saying. “I’m more of a Republican than a
Democrat. . . . If I ran for public office, then I would be
running as a Republican.” In most years, this would be a ticket to political
oblivion in Chicago. In 2023 it could be the kind of change the city
chooses—and needs.
Ms.
Levy is a member of the Journal’s editorial board.