Here’s what should worry you about midterm voting
Columnist|
October 31, 2022 at 7:45 a.m. EDT
Voting advocates and
lawyers are raising five categories of concerns in the runup to the midterms,
from fears of rising voter intimidation to anxiety that election deniers will
spark violence to worries that spurious litigation will prevent timely
certification of results.
First, and perhaps
most troubling, the nearly 300 GOP election
deniers/liars on the ballot are likely to whip up anger
about a “rigged” system or “stolen election,” priming aggrieved supporters for
violence. Many
high-profile Republicans have refused to pledge to respect the results. Given
Republicans’ embrace of the “big lie” in 2020, we should prepare for a plethora
of baseless accusations, some of which could incite unstable individuals.
And because these
candidates are so fixated on the voting fraud narrative, some might continue to
denigrate the system even if they win (as Donald Trump did in 2016), claiming
they were cheated out of even bigger victories. Democratic election lawyer Marc
Elias tells me, “There’s no way for them to get off the election denial
treadmill.”
Likewise, David
Becker, founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research,
tells me, “I am concerned about what happens after 8 p.m. on election night,
when it’s clear that some losing candidates are preparing to delegitimize a
process that was secure and understood, and make claims that may be intended to
spark anger and violence.” He expects “false claims that votes should be
counted on election night, though we’ve never done that, and it has always
appropriately taken days or even weeks to count all the ballots.” He adds,
“These claims could lead to some volatile situations in some states, and
potentially political violence.”
If one had any doubt
about the incendiary atmosphere, consider the crazed individual who broke into
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s house, assaulted her husband and vowed to wait for
Pelosi (“Where is Nancy?”), all too reminiscent of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol
rioters. This was almost certainly an assassination attempt, the culmination of
years of misogynistic demonization of the person second in line to the
presidency and routine use of violent images and rhetoric. When Republicans
such as Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin turn
the assault into a punchline or House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.)
remains silent, they normalize violence.
Second, voter
intimidation remains a real factor. In Arizona, U.S. District Judge Michael
Liburdi rejected a complaint against Clean Elections USA for
gathering near drop boxes in Maricopa County and following voters and taking
photos and videos of them. He likewise refused to bar groups related to the
Oath Keepers, a far-right militia, from doing similar things in Arizona’s
Yavapai County. An emergency appeal is pending with the U.S. Court of Appeals
for the 9th Circuit. (Briefing will take place over the next day or so, but
voting rights advocates are confident the 9th Circuit will reverse.)
Likewise in Florida,
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s administration carried out dramatic arrests of
mostly Black residents, an unmistakable message to voters who
might be uncertain as to whether they can legally vote. (The Post reported,
“Those arrested — most of whom are Black — are all accused of violating a state
law prohibiting those convicted of murder or felony sexual offenses from voting
after completing their sentences. The arrests … raised questions about whether
DeSantis and his election police unit were weaponizing their new powers to gain
political advantage.”) Even if these voters are exonerated, Republicans’
actions could chill turnout — the essence of voter suppression.
Third,
the MAGA disinformation machine will be as active as ever. Twitter
is in the hands of Elon Musk, whose willingness to take down posts that
intimidate or mislead voters is under serious question. When media outlets say
the truth of a specious claim is “unknown,” or that a complaint about fraud is
“so far unsupported,” they grant election deniers a bogus aura of credibility.
Responsible outlets should remind viewers that an election reversal based on
recounts of statewide races is exceedingly rare when hundreds of votes
separated the candidates, let alone when the gap is in the thousands. (One survey of 5,778
statewide races between 2000 and 2019 found only three reversals.)
Fourth, Republicans
have intentionally injected uncertainty and delay into the system. Demanding vote
counting by hand (as Republicans did in Nye County, Nev., until
the state Supreme Court stepped in) or refusing to allow election officials to
open and count hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots in advance of Nov. 8
(as Republicans did in Pennsylvania) are just
two ways to stave off a sense of finality. The longer the process goes on and
the more baseless complaints emerge, the greater the risk of delegitimizing the
election — precisely the aim.
In demanding hand
recounts and wanting to shut down secure drop boxes, Republicans are in fact
making voting less secure and reliable. It’s almost as if the last
thing Republicans want is objective, verifiable and sound results.
Finally, Republicans
have already weaponized the legal system. Former Trump phony-elector
plotter John Eastman and
others, as well as MAGA cohorts such as Cleta Mitchell, have been recruiting
and training partisans to gin up challenges at the polls. Meanwhile, dozens of
lawsuits trying to restrict voting (e.g., disallow drop boxes) have been filed.
In response,
advocates of voting rights are forced to play whack-a-mole. As Elias points out, “In
Georgia, these laws have enabled activists to file mass challenges, attempting
to strip the rights of tens of thousands of citizens to vote.” Elias tells me
the most recent batch of challenges are demands (filed barely a week before the
election) to hire more Republicans for election boards in Michigan and
elsewhere.
The attempt to “flood
the zone” with challenges gives the GOP the opportunity to throw everything at
the wall and see what disqualifications can stick. By selectively challenging
ballots in areas with high numbers of minority or college student voters,
Republicans aim to game the system.
In short, we face an
array of threats to the integrity of our democratic system and the public’s
trust in elections. Responsible politicians can prevent further damage to
democracy if they denounce specious claims of fraud and any incitement to
violent action.
In 2020, Republicans
worked to discredit the election starting months before the vote, then
litigated, then focused the pent-up rage into violence on Jan. 6, 2021. Elias
says he fears a similar pattern this year. The mainstream media can resist the
temptation to fan disinformation. And prosecutors, law enforcement and judges
must strive to ensure that every legal vote is counted correctly.
That sort of
all-hands-on-deck effort is how we preserve democracy for at least one more
election cycle.