Tuesday, August 30, 2022

NEW INC. MAGAZINE COLUMN BY HOWARD TULLMAN

 

Why Life Isn't Grand for Brands

Rising inflation, and more powerful tools that allow consumers to compare and buy products, is putting some big names under pressure. They can't live off the past--neither can your company. 


BY HOWARD TULLMAN, GENERAL MANAGING PARTNER, G2T3V AND CHICAGO HIGH TECH INVESTORS@TULLMAN

Much like the COVID-19 pandemic completely upended the centuries old idea of the five-days-in-office work week, made Zoom (and its lesser clones) an essential workplace and social tool for users of all ages, and accelerated the nationwide adoption of insta-clinics and telemedicine by roughly a decade, the pandemic's supply chain disruptions, abundant price gouging, and the resultant rampant inflation have also changed consumer behaviors. Shoppers today are absolutely crushing the price premiums that major brands in every vertical have historically been able to extract from consumers.

Interestingly enough, because beggars can't be choosers, we're seeing that private labels and other store and local brands are also more available and attractive to consumers than the bigger brands - even apart from price - because they're more likely to be locally sourced and produced and therefore able to beat some of the supply chain and trucking issues in order to be more regularly available on the store shelves. One of Covid-19's lasting lessons will be the need for vendors to have far more redundancy, resilience and local warehousing capability. 

Online shopping, which puts us just a click away from a cheaper choice and voice/mobile search, which places a premium on an answer rather than a choice, have already dramatically diminished the incremental importance of packaging and brand identities. But the economic pains and other disruptions caused by Covid-19 and their influence on "smart" shoppers may have had an even greater and longer impact.

In addition, the mass onsite and drive-by testing protocols, along with casual neighborhood inoculations of millions of Americans by strangers in random popped-up locations, have also completely changed consumers' perceptions of, and relationships to, their "family" docs, the mystery and magic of exorbitantly priced wonder drugs, and to the traditional ways of accessing, securing, and delivering health care. If you think any desperate consumer cared whether they were getting a Moderna or a Pfizer shot in the rush to get vaccinated, you don't understand how little the brand name of the vaccine mattered.

We have now trained hundreds of millions of consumers to expect "free" tests and vaccinations, to have these administered by quasi-professionals they've never met before or vetted in any way, and, most importantly, to be utterly indifferent to the brand and manufacturer of any vaccine that they were fortunate enough to receive. Of course, there were plenty of resistant and stupid anti-vaxxers-- may they rest in peace. And, while the world isn't yet entirely convinced that generic drugs will get the job done in every case, the genie is never going to be fully stuffed back into the bottle.  

However, the single biggest shift so far and the greatest threat to the big legacy brands has been in the ways in which we view and manage our time.

It's only now becoming apparent that one of the very modest silver linings of the pandemic and all of its continuing consequences is that it gave every one of us the gift of additional time. Life slowed down, work became more episodic and manageable for many of us. Millions of others retired (voluntarily or otherwise). And the idea-- which had come to seem like tech-centric gospel--that our time was more valuable than money has gradually morphed into a new view that making a life is immeasurably more important than making a living.  Also, that, while trading money for time would always be a calculation of consequence, we now all had an opportunity to reevaluate how to best strike the balance between the two and their relative primacy and priority in our lives.  

We abruptly and unexpectedly had a moment-- free of history, prior obligations, and most consequences-- to catch our collective breaths, take stock of our lives and decide how best to get on in a new and reordered reality.

It turns out that when you give people new choices, they ask hard questions about the value of old products and fancy brands top that list. Millions of consumers took that opportunity to examine, reevaluate, and compare their work, options, services, products, commitments, and relationships, and even religions in new and different ways. Freed from the daily stress and pressures of traditional office work and from the FOMO feeling that everything always needed to be done at once, the world took a beat and the big, expensive brands across the board are taking a beating as a result. If you think buying Bayer, Tide, or Charmin for just a few bucks more is still seen by millions of consumers as a bargain, when the house brands are clearly just as effective, you haven't been shopping lately. Again, when the issue is simply getting TP (as it was for a month or two during the pandemic), what name, type, or flavor it turns out to be doesn't make a bit of difference.

Brand loyalty used to be an inertia-driven way that we escaped decision fatigue. Instead of the angst of having too many choices and too little time to think about them, it was easiest to stick with the tried and true. In typical test cases, buyers offered too many choices simply pass and choose to buy nothing. No one is looking for more choices; they want clear and obvious solutions that they can be confident in and which they believe were provided by vendors and suppliers whom they could trust. Brands used to offer that promise and assurance and acted as a form of shorthand for trust and authenticity. Of course, that was before the rampant rise of shrinkflation, which again has been largely attributed to (mainly because it's so obvious) to the big brands and major producers whose packages and contents have been reduced.

But post-pandemic life is changing in many ways. Given the luxury of additional time for a variety of reasons and a pervasive sense that prices are out of control (they aren't) and that consumers are being gouged by predatory retailers along with the interesting fact that dads are doing a lot more of the day-to-day shopping, the whole retail experience has become a new ball game.

Comparison shopping is rampant and made infinitely easier by the internet. The idea, ease, and satisfaction of investigating LKQ (like, kind and quality) products available at lower price points has taken hold, and the immediate and visible presence of more and more private label and generic products aggressively advertised and promoted at demonstrably lower prices for what are essentially identical famous brand offerings has put enormous pressure on some brands who provide staple goods to become far more price competitive.

Every aisle in every store now offers side-by-side comparative advertising -- along with claims of equal efficacy and results -- and more and more consumers are becoming comfortable with the switch to private label and generic offerings. These days, the greater the perceived similarities between products appear, the less important a specific brand choice becomes and frankly the web has made for millions of smarter consumers as well in terms of appropriate substitutions and generic alternatives. It wasn't too long ago that no one could even pronounce ibuprofen and now it's got Tylenol on the run.    

Big brands became lazy during the pandemic and convinced themselves that their brands alone would carry the day even in the face of shrinking package contents accompanied by increased prices. They made two major errors: (1) they confused frequency of purchases with loyalty when the fact is that there were often few or any alternatives for the typical consumer, and (2) they believed that consumer purchase and brand choices were expressions of preference when, in fact, they were often dictated by availability.    

There's really no end in sight to the continued deterioration of consumer attachment to any specific brand per se, which means that the big brands need to move quickly to up their value proposition - by increasing the bundle of benefits their products and services offer as well as the overall experience.  They need to keep raising the bar unless they're prepared to fall further and further behind their competition.  

Brands only partially control their own destiny today. The wisdom and knowledge of the crowd and the clock have just as much to do with their fate and fortunes as anything within their own direct control.

AUG 30, 2022

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.