What’s Left in the Seven States That Will Decide the
Race
Though
they’re still too close to call, there are some indications of which way things
might go.
By Nate Cohn
- Nov. 4, 2020, 8:57 a.m. ET
There are still seven states left
undecided in the presidential race. Here’s where they stand on Wednesday
morning.
Wisconsin. Joe Biden leads by
about 20,000 votes or by seven-tenths of a percentage point (which is almost
exactly the margin of President Trump’s victory here in 2016). That might not
seem like a daunting deficit, but there’s just not much reason for hope for Mr.
Trump. Only a scattering of precincts remain across the state. This race might
still be considered too close to call as long as there are still outstanding
votes, but you can pencil this one into the Biden column if you’re gaming out
what’s likely to happen from here.
Nevada. Mr. Biden has only a narrow lead,
but here again it’s hard to see where Mr. Trump is supposed to make up ground.
All of the Election Day vote has been counted, and now only Democratic-leaning
late mail and provisional ballots remain.
Arizona. The president
is at a much larger five-point deficit in Arizona, so you might be surprised to
learn that it’s still up for grabs. But there’s uncertainty about the remaining
vote. One thing we know: There are late mail ballots, received by the state
over the last few days. These ballots usually tilt Democratic, but this year
they might not. So many Democrats rushed their ballots in early that most of
the remaining absentee ballots are from registered Republicans. It’s possible
these Republicans just went out and voted on Election Day. But it’s also
possible they’ve sent in their ballots, which haven’t been counted yet. We’ll get
a better idea later today.
Michigan. Mr. Trump had the
lead here all night, but his path is now looking bleak. His lead has narrowed
to just about half a percentage point as of early Wednesday, and many votes
remain to be counted in heavily Democratic Wayne County. It’s also reasonable
to assume that a lot of the outstanding vote is Democratic mail absentee, which
poll workers weren’t allowed to begin processing until either Monday or
Tuesday. This might not be particularly close in the end, and there’s a decent
chance it’s called today.
If Mr. Biden takes the lead in
Michigan, and he might soon, that would give him an advantage in states worth
more than 270 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania. Looks can be deceiving. This one might seem out of
reach for Mr. Biden, with the president holding an 11-point lead. But Mr. Trump
is in quite a bit of danger here as well. The preponderance of the remaining
vote is mail absentee, and Mr. Biden has won mail absentee votes in
Pennsylvania by a margin of 78 percent to 21 percent. There are more than 1.4
million absentee votes left to count, according to the Secretary of State, and
that’s not including ballots that might arrive over the next few days. If Mr.
Biden wins these 1.4 million votes by the same margin he’s been winning them so
far — and it seems a safe bet — it would net him 800,000 votes, enough for him
to pull ahead. That said, it’s hard to be too confident with this many ballots
left to count. It might be days until there’s a projection.
Georgia. This might surprise people. Mr.
Trump has a two-point lead with more than 90 percent of votes counted, but
there’s a lot of Democratic vote left in the Atlanta area. It might be just
enough for Mr. Biden. This one’s sure to be very close either way.
If Mr. Biden did
carry Georgia, along with the other states mentioned so far, he’d win more than
300 electoral votes.
North
Carolina. This
is the one state where Mr. Trump is the favorite. The race isn’t particularly
close, but there’s a big missing piece of the puzzle: late mail ballots. The
state accepts mail ballots received after the election, and there were around
half a million absentee ballots still outstanding heading into Election Day.
Realistically, only a fraction of these ballots will be mailed in. In 2016,
there were only 10,000 or so — though there were far fewer absentee ballots
cast that year. This year, there wasn’t a huge flood of mail ballots received
on Monday — which probably suggests there won’t be a huge flood of ballots
today. Nonetheless, we don’t know any of this for sure. I’d guess the race
won’t be called until we do.
