A Trump comeback at this point would be unprecedented
Opinion by
Columnist
September 22, 2020 at 8:45 a.m. CDT
President
Trump seems determined to offend every female voter in America. On Monday, he
outrageously claimed that the
deathbed wish from Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg that her seat not be filled
until the next election was fake. "I don’t know that she said that, or if
that was that written out by [Rep.] Adam Schiff [D-Calif.], [Sen. Charles E.]
Schumer [D-N.Y.] and [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi D-Calif.],” Trump said
without a smidgen of proof and contrary to eye witnesses. “I would
be more inclined to the second,” he continued. Short of literally spitting on
Ginsburg’s grave, Trump could hardly come up with a more insulting response to
the passing of a revered justice and feminist icon.
Perhaps
Ginsburg’s passing has reminded women — especially young women — how much is at
stake and will inspire them to head for the polls. The angst and energy are
certainly on the left. The honors of lying in
repose at the Supreme Court and then in state at the U.S. Capitol speaks to
Ginsburg’s unique place in the hearts of millions of Americans.
Trump’s
insults and intentions to subvert democracy may make matters worse for him, but
we see no evidence that might lift him to victory. Indeed, there is reason to
surmise that the race is pretty much locked in for his opponent — and has been
for some time.
Incumbent
presidents are hard — but not impossible — to beat. Indeed, it has happened
only twice in recent memory. Challenger Ronald Reagan beat President Jimmy
Carter in 1980 51 percent to 41 percent. In 1992, Bill Clinton beat President George H.W.
Bush with 43 percent of the vote; Bush received 37 percent, with 19 percent
going to independent Ross Perot.
It is
helpful to see how the race in each of those years looked in September. Gallup in 1980 showed
Carter dropping to a dismal 29 percent at the beginning of August but staging a
steady comeback to tie Reagan in September, going briefly ahead in October and
finally collapsing at the end. (Reagan was widely credited with reassuring
voters in two debates, one near
the end of September and the other at the end of October.) In 1992, Bush
trailed consistently from August through Election Day.
In the
two modern cases, then, it is evident that once the public lost confidence in
the incumbent, the damage was done (although we do not know if a disastrous
Reagan performance in the debates would have spurred Carter to victory). Trump
trails former vice president Joe Biden by roughly seven points in
polling averages. If anything, 1980 suggests that the playing field may tip
even further away from the wounded incumbent at the race’s end.
What
about incumbent presidents who won? No victorious incumbent president elected
on his own (i.e., running for a second or subsequent term) dating back at least
to 1936 came back from a deficit as large as Trump’s this late in the race.
When you consider that early in-person voting and absentee voting have already
begun, the prospects for a Trump comeback are even smaller.
On top
of all that, consider how few voters are undecided. Some polls put such voters
at as low as 3 percent; a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll (in
which Biden leads 51 to 43 percent) shows nearly 90 percent have firmly made
up their minds.
Caveats
are certainly in order. The polls could be wrong. The electoral college could
diverge from the popular vote (although a seven-point popular-vote lead would
in all likelihood seal an electoral vote win). If anything, Trump’s standing
may get worse thanks to his continued efforts to deflect and ignore a pandemic
(the coronavirus was “too big for him,” as Biden said in Wisconsin
on Monday), insult the military and working people (e.g., letting a
weekly $600 federal subsidy for
unemployment benefits lapse because he thinks recipients are lazy and will stay
home) and hold potential super-spreader rallies.
Meanwhile,
Biden will continue his outreach to Trump’s base. As he put it on Monday:
“I know many of you were frustrated. ... You will be seen, heard and respected
by me. This campaign isn’t about just winning votes. It’s about restoring the
basic dignity in this country that every worker deserves.” There is not
anything to send voters scurrying back to Trump.